TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076691
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11512108111012711
Matyas Rojka
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Matyas Rojka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 97 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 9–4 Matyas Rojka Matyas Rojka has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Chmelicek
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1476 vs Rojka 1355
Chmelicek
Wrong
both rated, 122 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 40% vs Rojka 20%
Chmelicek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 60% vs Rojka 30%
Chmelicek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -1 · Rojka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rojka form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.80 / Rojka 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmelicek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13076691
Chmelicek1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite53% won 61 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it68% 48 of 71
Rojka1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 16 of 47
Down 0–1, comes back27% 9 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek7wins
AwayRojka3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChmelicek leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek83.3%5 of 6
AwayRojka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek6Rojka4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek7Rojka3n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S3Chmelicek6Rojka4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S4Chmelicek1Rojka5n = 6Rojka took 5 of 6
S5Chmelicek4Rojka1n = 5Chmelicek took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekRojkaC − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.638.1+1.5per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekRojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime216 / 454 vs 90 / 18847.6%47.9%216 / 454 vs 90 / 188Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.80/Rojka 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Rojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 17 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—118115113M. Rojka—71191192
LJun 15 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—3139101M. Rojka—111111123
WJun 11 · 21:50M. Chmelicek—1413113M. Rojka—121160
WJun 11 · 19:35M. Chmelicek—111167123M. Rojka—571111102
WJun 3 · 21:05M. Chmelicek—311118133M. Rojka—118811112
WJun 3 · 20:35M. Chmelicek—1111113M. Rojka—6520
LJun 2 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—9440M. Rojka—1111113
WMay 28 · 18:35M. Chmelicek—8111212143M. Rojka—1181410122
LMay 9 · 16:05M. Chmelicek—11911852M. Rojka—211711113
WMar 15 · 21:35M. Chmelicek—1111113M. Rojka—8970
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
M. Rojka10
LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113LSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952LSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581
Upcoming Matches
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M. Rojka
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