TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063983
Played Sep 2Finished
Tomas Krcil
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115311115118––
Matyas Rojka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Matyas Rojka below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 65 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 54.0%
65 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 10–6 Matyas Rojka Matyas Rojka has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:30What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Krcil
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1485 vs Rojka 1362
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 40% vs Rojka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 40% vs Rojka 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil +2 · Rojka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Krcil) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krcil form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.73 / Rojka 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Krcil)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13063983
Krcil1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 43 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it67% 29 of 43
Rojka2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 15 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back26% 8 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back12% 2 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrcil5wins
AwayRojka5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil42.9%3 of 7
AwayRojka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil7Rojka3n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S2Krcil3Rojka7n = 10Rojka took 7 of 10
S3Krcil5Rojka5n = 10split evenly
S4Krcil5Rojka4n = 9Krcil took 5 of 9
S5Krcil2Rojka2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrcilRojkaK − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.037.2+2.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilRojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 261 vs 89 / 18452.1%48.4%136 / 261 vs 89 / 184Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.73/Rojka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil—11311113M. Rojka—511581
WJul 8 · 19:35T. Krcil—6121211113M. Rojka—111410562
WJun 17 · 21:05T. Krcil—1111113M. Rojka—7580
WJun 17 · 19:35T. Krcil—81111113M. Rojka—116661
LJun 15 · 18:35T. Krcil—11611111M. Rojka—13114133
LJun 11 · 20:35T. Krcil—111256182M. Rojka—3101111203
WJun 2 · 20:05T. Krcil—119711113M. Rojka—91111332
LMay 28 · 21:15T. Krcil—117261M. Rojka—41111113
LMay 28 · 20:05T. Krcil—1112451M. Rojka—31411113
LApr 27 · 17:40T. Krcil—11791122M. Rojka—211114113
T. Krcil10
WSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952WSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 18:05T. Krcil1.61111110113J. Hajek2.20691281WSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113LSep 1 · 20:35T. Krcil1.57127611112J. Kabelka2.251011117133LSep 1 · 19:05J. Vidourek1.5781111113T. Krcil2.25119991LSep 1 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.73111179113T. Krcil2.0097111192WAug 26 · 21:10T. Krcil1.631111113J. Kabelka2.156440WAug 26 · 20:05T. Krcil1.571111911113J. Kabelka2.2568111382LAug 26 · 19:05T. Krcil1.801031461K. Lahodny1.91121112113
M. Rojka10
LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531LSep 4 · 21:45M. Cyrus2.101111314113M. Rojka1.67135111282WSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113WSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113LSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952LSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113
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