TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13062949
Played Sep 2Finished
Tomas Krcil
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161191012118––
Jaroslav Hajek
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:18 and never touched — 57.5% is still 57.5%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
57.5%
57.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Jaroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 78 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 57.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 2–0 Jaroslav Hajek Jaroslav Hajek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1485 vs Hajek 1375
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 110 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 40% vs Hajek 20%
Krcil
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 40% vs Hajek 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil +1 · Hajek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Krcil)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hajek form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.61 / Hajek 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Krcil)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13062949
Krcil1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite52% won 43 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it88% 22 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it67% 29 of 43
Hajek2.20
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeKrcil2wins
AwayHajek0wins
Krcil leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home2
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricKrcilHajekK − HBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match39.033.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime136 / 261 vs 8 / 2252.1%36.4%136 / 261 vs 8 / 22Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.61/Hajek 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 2 · 18:05T. Krcil—111110113J. Hajek—691281
WAug 3 · 12:35T. Krcil—11112113J. Hajek—761171
T. Krcil10
WSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952WSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581WSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113LSep 1 · 20:35T. Krcil1.57127611112J. Kabelka2.251011117133LSep 1 · 19:05J. Vidourek1.5781111113T. Krcil2.25119991LSep 1 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.73111179113T. Krcil2.0097111192WAug 26 · 21:10T. Krcil1.631111113J. Kabelka2.156440WAug 26 · 20:05T. Krcil1.571111911113J. Kabelka2.2568111382LAug 26 · 19:05T. Krcil1.801031461K. Lahodny1.91121112113
J. Hajek10
WSep 3 · 13:14M. Chmelicek1.8381161182J. Hajek1.83116115113LSep 3 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.73511714113J. Hajek2.00117111292WSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540LSep 3 · 10:05M. Flesar1.91117119113J. Hajek1.8011181172WSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180WSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133WAug 21 · 21:05R. Jaros1.8318111182J. Hajek1.83111199113LAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113LAug 21 · 19:05J. Hajek1.7311512762M. Chmelicek2.009111011113
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