TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13068283
Played Sep 3Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111177111412119
Jaroslav Hajek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:29 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Chmelicek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Jaroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 98 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Martin Chmelicek at 54.0%
98 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 2–0 Jaroslav Hajek Jaroslav Hajek has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmelicek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1486 vs Hajek 1413
Chmelicek
Correct
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 60% vs Hajek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 70% vs Hajek 40%
Chmelicek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek -2 · Hajek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chmelicek)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.73 / Hajek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chmelicek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13068283
Chmelicek1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 60 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it90% 34 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it68% 48 of 71
Hajek2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChmelicek2wins
AwayHajek0wins
2 of 2 to a deciderChmelicek leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home2
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricChmelicekHajekC − HBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match50.045.5+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 451 vs 11 / 2747.7%40.7%215 / 451 vs 11 / 27Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChmelicekChmelicek 1.73/Hajek 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chmelicek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 3 · 12:35M. Chmelicek—511714113J. Hajek—117111292
WAug 21 · 19:05M. Chmelicek—9111011113J. Hajek—11512762
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
J. Hajek10
WSep 3 · 13:14M. Chmelicek1.8381161182J. Hajek1.83116115113WSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540LSep 3 · 10:05M. Flesar1.91117119113J. Hajek1.8011181172WSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180WSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 2 · 18:05T. Krcil1.61111110113J. Hajek2.20691281WAug 21 · 21:05R. Jaros1.8318111182J. Hajek1.83111199113LAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113LAug 21 · 19:05J. Hajek1.7311512762M. Chmelicek2.009111011113
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