TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12469759
Played Aug 21Finished
Jaroslav Hajek
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1195111210711611
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:27 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Hajek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Hajek above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Jaroslav Hajek at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Hajek 0–1 Martin Chmelicek Jaroslav Hajek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:27What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Hajek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hajek 1397 vs Chmelicek 1395
Hajek
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hajek 20% vs Chmelicek 80%
Chmelicek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hajek 40% vs Chmelicek 70%
Chmelicek
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hajek -3 · Chmelicek +1
Hajek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hajek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHajek 1.73 / Chmelicek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Hajek)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12469759
Hajek1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Chmelicek2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 49 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHajek0wins
AwayChmelicek1wins
1 of 1 to a deciderChmelicek leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHajekChmelicekH − CBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match41.052.0−11.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHajekChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 19 vs 197 / 42336.8%46.6%7 / 19 vs 197 / 423Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekHajek 1.73/Chmelicek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 21 · 19:05J. Hajek—11512762M. Chmelicek—9111011113
J. Hajek10
WSep 3 · 13:14M. Chmelicek1.8381161182J. Hajek1.83116115113LSep 3 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.73511714113J. Hajek2.00117111292WSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540LSep 3 · 10:05M. Flesar1.91117119113J. Hajek1.8011181172WSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180WSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 2 · 18:05T. Krcil1.61111110113J. Hajek2.20691281WAug 21 · 21:05R. Jaros1.8318111182J. Hajek1.83111199113LAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 3 · 13:14M. Chmelicek1.8381161182J. Hajek1.83116115113WSep 3 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.73511714113J. Hajek2.00117111292
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.