TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13067171
Played Sep 3Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
111711118911117
Jaroslav Hajek
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:39 and never touched — 69.4% is still 69.4%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
69.4%
69.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jaroslav Hajek below
Set 1 · 11-1
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 87 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Milan Flesar at 69.4%
87 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 1–1 Jaroslav Hajek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:39What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Hajek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1550 vs Hajek 1414
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 136 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 80% vs Hajek 60%
Flesar
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 70% vs Hajek 30%
Flesar
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +4 · Hajek +2
Flesar
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Hajek) · live re-read · sealed at 31% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.91 / Hajek 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Hajek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13067171
Flesar1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 39 of 89
Down 0–1, comes back30% 17 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Hajek1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeFlesar1wins
AwayHajek1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricFlesarHajekF − HBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match37.036.0+1.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarHajekBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 377 vs 10 / 2453.1%41.7%200 / 377 vs 10 / 24Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.238.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HajekFlesar 1.91/Hajek 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Hajek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LApr 17 · 21:20M. Flesar—11111782J. Hajek—791111113
WApr 17 · 20:05M. Flesar—1111143J. Hajek—56120
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143
J. Hajek10
WSep 3 · 13:14M. Chmelicek1.8381161182J. Hajek1.83116115113LSep 3 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.73511714113J. Hajek2.00117111292WSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540WSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180WSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 2 · 18:05T. Krcil1.61111110113J. Hajek2.20691281WAug 21 · 21:05R. Jaros1.8318111182J. Hajek1.83111199113LAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113LAug 21 · 19:05J. Hajek1.7311512762M. Chmelicek2.009111011113
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