TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076738
Played Sep 4Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118114––––
Radek Fitl
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:57 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 51 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Radek Fitl at 54.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 7–9 Radek Fitl Milan Flesar has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:57What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Flesar
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Fitl
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1568 vs Fitl 1558
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 80% vs Fitl 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 80% vs Fitl 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar +2 · Fitl +3
Fitl
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Flesar) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 1.57 / Fitl 2.25
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Flesar)-2.6pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13076738
Flesar1.57
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 73 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it96% 47 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it76% 62 of 82
Fitl2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 50 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFlesar5wins
AwayFitl5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesar100%5 of 5
AwayFitl100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar5Fitl5n = 10split evenly
S2Flesar4Fitl6n = 10Fitl took 6 of 10
S3Flesar4Fitl6n = 10Fitl took 6 of 10
S4Flesar3Fitl4n = 7Fitl took 4 of 7
S5Flesar4Fitl2n = 6Flesar took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFlesarFitlFlesar − FitlBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.942.2−3.3per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 382 vs 170 / 32853.4%51.8%204 / 382 vs 170 / 328Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarFlesar 1.57/Fitl 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.3%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 16:35M. Flesar—812118102R. Fitl—1110111123
LJul 2 · 13:45M. Flesar—5820R. Fitl—1111113
WJul 2 · 11:05M. Flesar—116611113R. Fitl—81111752
LJun 25 · 18:35M. Flesar—81181282R. Fitl—1191110113
WJun 20 · 18:05M. Flesar—1151511113R. Fitl—91117552
WJun 6 · 20:05M. Flesar—119166123R. Fitl—6111411102
WJun 6 · 17:15M. Flesar—1111133R. Fitl—79110
WJun 6 · 15:05M. Flesar—131238113R. Fitl—1110111152
LMay 26 · 17:40M. Flesar—551251R. Fitl—111110113
LMay 26 · 16:05M. Flesar—8540R. Fitl—1111113
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143WSep 3 · 11:05M. Flesar1.8391111113M. Chmelicek1.83118941
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870
Upcoming Matches
M. Flesar
Nothing scheduled
R. Fitl
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.