TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082004
Played Sep 5Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11312101517117––
Richard Vavricka
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fitl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 11-3
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 15-17
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 86 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Radek Fitl at 54.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 4–5 Richard Vavricka Radek Fitl has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:01What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Fitl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1559 vs Vavricka 1459
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 40% vs Vavricka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 60% vs Vavricka 40%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl +1 · Vavricka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Fitl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 1.73 / Vavricka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Fitl)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13082004
Fitl1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 74 of 120
Up 2–0, closes it85% 40 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it79% 55 of 70
Vavricka2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 23 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back35% 10 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back20% 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeFitl4wins
AwayVavricka5wins
1 of 9 to a deciderVavricka leads 5–4, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl100%3 of 3
AwayVavricka83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl3Vavricka6n = 9Vavricka took 6 of 9
S2Fitl4Vavricka5n = 9Vavricka took 5 of 9
S3Fitl4Vavricka5n = 9Vavricka took 5 of 9
S4Fitl2Vavricka3n = 5Vavricka took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home222%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away333%
These 9 meetings
MetricFitlVavrickaF − VBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match34.835.9−1.1per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 334 vs 101 / 19451.5%52.1%172 / 334 vs 101 / 194Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FitlFitl 1.73/Vavricka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Fitl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl—111215113R. Vavricka—3101771
WAug 15 · 11:35R. Fitl—1113113R. Vavricka—81180
LAug 15 · 09:40R. Fitl—9970R. Vavricka—1111113
WAug 15 · 06:05R. Fitl—11117113R. Vavricka—651171
LJun 20 · 20:05R. Fitl—891161R. Vavricka—11119113
LMay 16 · 19:05R. Fitl—981861R. Vavricka—111116113
LMay 7 · 21:10R. Fitl—5830R. Vavricka—1111113
WMay 7 · 20:05R. Fitl—611119113R. Vavricka—11641172
LMar 20 · 21:35R. Fitl—71080R. Vavricka—1112113
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870
R. Vavricka10
LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142WAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113LAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690WAug 23 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38913118133R. Vosyka1.531111911112LAug 23 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.571211113R. Vavricka2.2510770WAug 15 · 13:09P. Pesout2.383812111R. Vavricka1.53111110133LAug 15 · 12:35P. Pesout2.63121211113R. Vavricka1.441014981LAug 15 · 11:35R. Vavricka1.8081180R. Fitl1.911113113
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