TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12436689
Played Aug 15Finished
Petr Pesout
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 10Form at publish
0–10Last 10Lost last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101214119118––
Richard Vavricka
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 67.8% is still 67.8%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
67.8%
67.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPetr Pesout above · Richard Vavricka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 87 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 67.8%
87 points played in total.
H2H Petr Pesout 0–4 Richard Vavricka Petr Pesout has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:51What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Vavricka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Vavricka
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesout 1305 vs Vavricka 1554
Vavricka
Wrong
both rated, 249 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesout 0% vs Vavricka 60%
Vavricka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesout 0% vs Vavricka 70%
Vavricka
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesout -5 · Vavricka -2
Pesout
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesout form (0%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesout 2.63 / Vavricka 1.44
Signal prob.29% / 72%
Edge (Vavricka)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12436689
Pesout2.63
0%won 0 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 10
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 38 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back22% 12 of 54
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 32
Vavricka1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 33 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePesout0wins
AwayVavricka4wins
3 of 4 to a deciderVavricka leads 4–0, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesoutn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayVavricka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesout1Vavricka3n = 4Vavricka took 3 of 4
S2Pesout2Vavricka2n = 4split evenly
S3Pesout2Vavricka2n = 4split evenly
S4Pesout1Vavricka2n = 3Vavricka took 2 of 3
S5Pesout0Vavricka3n = 3Vavricka took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away375%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricPesoutVavrickaP − VBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set13−2of 4Avg pointsper match40.247.2−7.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesoutVavrickaBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 301 vs 98 / 18646.2%52.7%139 / 301 vs 98 / 186Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.338.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaPesout 2.63/Vavricka 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.5%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pesout won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 15 · 08:35P. Pesout—111151172R. Vavricka—913118113
LAug 14 · 15:05P. Pesout—8680R. Vavricka—1111113
LJul 11 · 13:35P. Pesout—91111592R. Vavricka—118911113
LJul 11 · 10:35P. Pesout—71312982R. Vavricka—11111011113
P. Pesout10
LSep 6 · 13:35P. Pesout1.80611881T. Motacek1.9111811113WSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113WSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143WSep 6 · 10:35P. Pesout1.83111247113T. Motacek1.83910111192LSep 2 · 17:35M. Flesar1.341111113P. Pesout2.805480WSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230WSep 2 · 15:05L. Vosyka1.3661570P. Pesout3.001117113LSep 2 · 14:35M. Flesar1.44711211113P. Pesout2.6311711562LAug 30 · 17:35M. Chmelicek2.10811611113P. Pesout1.6711511852LAug 30 · 16:05M. Chmelicek2.10121188113P. Pesout1.67103111182
R. Vavricka10
LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771LSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142WAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113LAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690WAug 23 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38913118133R. Vosyka1.531111911112LAug 23 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.571211113R. Vavricka2.2510770WAug 15 · 13:09P. Pesout2.383812111R. Vavricka1.53111110133LAug 15 · 11:35R. Vavricka1.8081180R. Fitl1.911113113
Upcoming Matches
P. Pesout
Nothing scheduled
R. Vavricka
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