TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12436676
Played Aug 15Finished
Richard Vavricka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
8111113811––––
Radek Fitl
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 60.7% is still 60.7%
Graded at full timeRichard Vavricka to win
60.7%
60.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongpick shipped
How it is goingRichard Vavricka above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 62 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Richard Vavricka at 60.7%
62 points played in total.
H2H Richard Vavricka 5–2 Radek Fitl Radek Fitl has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:51What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Vavricka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Vavricka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Vavricka 1541 vs Fitl 1564
Fitl
Correct
both rated, 23 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vavricka 60% vs Fitl 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vavricka 80% vs Fitl 50%
Vavricka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vavricka -1 · Fitl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Vavricka) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVavricka 1.80 / Fitl 1.91
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Vavricka)+3.0pp
TT Cup · #12436676
Vavricka1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite69% won 33 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it100% 16 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it96% 26 of 27
Fitl1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 38 of 85
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeVavricka5wins
AwayFitl2wins
1 of 7 to a deciderVavricka leads 5–2, and 1 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVavricka83.3%5 of 6
AwayFitln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Vavricka6Fitl1n = 7Vavricka took 6 of 7
S2Vavricka5Fitl2n = 7Vavricka took 5 of 7
S3Vavricka4Fitl3n = 7Vavricka took 4 of 7
S4Vavricka3Fitl1n = 4Vavricka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home343%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricVavrickaFitlV − FBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set61+5of 7Avg pointsper match37.032.7+4.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVavrickaFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime98 / 185 vs 141 / 26953%52.4%98 / 185 vs 141 / 269Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VavrickaVavricka 1.80/Fitl 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Vavricka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WAug 15 · 09:40R. Vavricka—1111113R. Fitl—9970
LAug 15 · 06:05R. Vavricka—651171R. Fitl—11117113
WJun 20 · 20:05R. Vavricka—11119113R. Fitl—891161
WMay 16 · 19:05R. Vavricka—111116113R. Fitl—981861
WMay 7 · 21:10R. Vavricka—1111113R. Fitl—5830
LMay 7 · 20:05R. Vavricka—11641172R. Fitl—611119113
WMar 20 · 21:35R. Vavricka—1112113R. Fitl—71080
R. Vavricka10
LSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100LSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771LSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142WAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113LAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690WAug 23 · 07:35R. Vavricka2.38913118133R. Vosyka1.531111911112LAug 23 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.571211113R. Vavricka2.2510770WAug 15 · 13:09P. Pesout2.383812111R. Vavricka1.53111110133LAug 15 · 12:35P. Pesout2.63121211113R. Vavricka1.441014981
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172
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