TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076943
Played Sep 4Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
13111169111315116
Radek Fitl
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:41 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 13-15
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 106 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Radek Neterda at 59.3%
106 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 12–3 Radek Fitl Radek Fitl has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:41What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Neterda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-3 in 15
Neterda
Correct
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1515 vs Fitl 1545
Fitl
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 20% vs Fitl 60%
Fitl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 40% vs Fitl 60%
Fitl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda +1 · Fitl -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Neterda) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.80 / Fitl 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Neterda)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13076943
Neterda1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite67% won 54 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Fitl1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 50 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda8wins
AwayFitl2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda100%6 of 6
AwayFitl50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda6Fitl4n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S2Neterda5Fitl5n = 10split evenly
S3Neterda6Fitl4n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S4Neterda7Fitl1n = 8Neterda took 7 of 8
S5Neterda3Fitl1n = 4Neterda took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaFitlN − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match44.336.3+8.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime193 / 382 vs 170 / 32950.5%51.7%193 / 382 vs 170 / 329Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.80/Fitl 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 24 · 10:35R. Neterda—121311113R. Fitl—1015761
LAug 20 · 13:40R. Neterda—811101182R. Fitl—117125113
WAug 20 · 12:35R. Neterda—11911113R. Fitl—511981
WAug 16 · 09:03R. Neterda—8101113113R. Fitl—111271152
WAug 16 · 08:05R. Neterda—1211911113R. Fitl—14311772
WAug 6 · 12:35R. Neterda—1112113R. Fitl—91050
WAug 4 · 10:35R. Neterda—1181111113R. Fitl—31113782
WJul 26 · 15:05R. Neterda—1111113R. Fitl—4950
LJul 25 · 11:35R. Neterda—11511101R. Fitl—13114123
WJul 18 · 17:05R. Neterda—11129113R. Fitl—8101151
R. Neterda10
LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113LSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123LSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113LSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870
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