TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079432
Played Sep 5Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511011711––––
Jan Lovl
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:27 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 0-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 45 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Jan Lovl at 54.8%
45 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 6–19 Jan Lovl Radek Neterda has won 6 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:27What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-19 in 25
Lovl
Correct
gap of 13 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1546 vs Lovl 1526
Neterda
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 60% vs Lovl 20%
Neterda
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 50% vs Lovl 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda +3 · Lovl -1
Neterda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.91 / Lovl 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lovl)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13079432
Neterda1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 40 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Lovl1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 62 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it95% 37 of 39
Up 1–0, closes it77% 50 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda3wins
AwayLovl7wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLovl leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda75%3 of 4
AwayLovl100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda4Lovl6n = 10Lovl took 6 of 10
S2Neterda2Lovl8n = 10Lovl took 8 of 10
S3Neterda4Lovl6n = 10Lovl took 6 of 10
S4Neterda5Lovl2n = 7Neterda took 5 of 7
S5Neterda2Lovl4n = 6Lovl took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaLovlN − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.541.9−5.4per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 384 vs 163 / 31750.8%51.4%195 / 384 vs 163 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlNeterda 1.91/Lovl 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 12:35R. Neterda—791112132J. Lovl—1111710153
LAug 15 · 17:04R. Neterda—11119422J. Lovl—841111113
WAug 15 · 14:05R. Neterda—1112511113J. Lovl—81411772
LAug 12 · 14:05R. Neterda—4460J. Lovl—1111113
LAug 6 · 11:35R. Neterda—46110J. Lovl—1111133
LJul 30 · 17:08R. Neterda—39111292J. Lovl—1111410113
WJul 30 · 16:35R. Neterda—12511113J. Lovl—1011981
LJul 17 · 11:35R. Neterda—911119102J. Lovl—113311123
WJun 23 · 13:15R. Neterda—113311113J. Lovl—91111972
LJun 23 · 11:35R. Neterda—5860J. Lovl—1111113
R. Neterda10
LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113LSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123LSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113LSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111
J. Lovl10
LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972LAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny1.1711115113J. Lovl4.50571161WAug 30 · 12:35R. Neterda2.00791112132J. Lovl1.731111710153LAug 30 · 11:35J. Lovl2.636760R. Pokorny1.441111113
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J. Lovl
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