TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084743
Played Sep 6Finished
Milan Flesar
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911811––––
Jan Lovl
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:37 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMilan Flesar above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 55 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Jan Lovl at 61.5%
55 points played in total.
H2H Milan Flesar 1–5 Jan Lovl Milan Flesar has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:37What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Lovl
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Flesar 1451 vs Lovl 1562
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 111 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Flesar 60% vs Lovl 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Flesar 70% vs Lovl 50%
Flesar
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Flesar -2 · Lovl +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFlesar 3.25 / Lovl 1.33
Signal prob.27% / 73%
Edge (Lovl)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13084743
Flesar3.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 99
Down 0–1, comes back28% 17 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Lovl1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 65 of 114
Up 2–0, closes it93% 40 of 43
Up 1–0, closes it77% 54 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeFlesar1wins
AwayLovl5wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLovl leads 5–1, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFlesarn = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayLovl83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Flesar0Lovl6n = 6Lovl took 6 of 6
S2Flesar2Lovl4n = 6Lovl took 4 of 6
S3Flesar1Lovl5n = 6Lovl took 5 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home117%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away467%
These 6 meetings
MetricFlesarLovlF − LBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set06−6of 6Avg pointsper match30.238.8−8.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFlesarLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 389 vs 168 / 32553%51.7%206 / 389 vs 168 / 325Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlFlesar 3.25/Lovl 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.3%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar—5980J. Lovl—1111113
LAug 9 · 17:05M. Flesar—6860J. Lovl—1111113
WAug 9 · 15:35M. Flesar—611119123J. Lovl—119811102
LAug 3 · 15:35M. Flesar—51141472J. Lovl—1131112113
LFeb 20 · 14:35M. Flesar—811110J. Lovl—1113133
LFeb 20 · 12:05M. Flesar—5860J. Lovl—1111113
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143WSep 3 · 11:05M. Flesar1.8391111113M. Chmelicek1.83118941
J. Lovl10
LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113LAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny1.1711115113J. Lovl4.50571161WAug 30 · 12:35R. Neterda2.00791112132J. Lovl1.731111710153LAug 30 · 11:35J. Lovl2.636760R. Pokorny1.441111113
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