TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13047375
Played Aug 30Finished
Radim Pokorny
Home
1.17
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115117511116––
Jan Lovl
Away
4.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:11 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeRadim Pokorny to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Pokorny above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 67 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Radim Pokorny at 61.7%
67 points played in total.
H2H Radim Pokorny 26–7 Jan Lovl Jan Lovl has won 7 of their 33 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Pokorny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-7 in 33
Pokorny
Correct
gap of 19 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pokorny 1603 vs Lovl 1526
Pokorny
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pokorny 40% vs Lovl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pokorny 50% vs Lovl 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pokorny -1 · Lovl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 82% — Strong (leans Pokorny) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPokorny 1.17 / Lovl 4.50
Signal prob.82% / 18%
Edge (Pokorny)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13047375
Pokorny1.17
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite55% won 38 of 69
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it78% 32 of 41
Lovl4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog39% won 25 of 65
Down 0–1, comes back24% 10 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePokorny8wins
AwayLovl2wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPokorny leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePokorny100%7 of 7
AwayLovl66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pokorny7Lovl3n = 10Pokorny took 7 of 10
S2Pokorny9Lovl1n = 10Pokorny took 9 of 10
S3Pokorny7Lovl3n = 10Pokorny took 7 of 10
S4Pokorny4Lovl2n = 6Pokorny took 4 of 6
S5Pokorny1Lovl2n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPokornyLovlP − LBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.830.6+8.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPokornyLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime143 / 286 vs 163 / 31750%51.4%143 / 286 vs 163 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PokornyPokorny 1.17/Lovl 4.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
81.8%
Pokorny · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Pokorny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny—11115113J. Lovl—571161
WAug 30 · 11:35R. Pokorny—1111113J. Lovl—6760
WAug 7 · 10:35R. Pokorny—11127113J. Lovl—9101161
WAug 6 · 12:05R. Pokorny—1111113J. Lovl—8770
WAug 5 · 10:35R. Pokorny—115114113J. Lovl—61141152
WJul 23 · 12:35R. Pokorny—81111113J. Lovl—117471
WJul 16 · 10:35R. Pokorny—1111113J. Lovl—7860
LJul 11 · 09:10R. Pokorny—101111892J. Lovl—124411113
WJul 11 · 06:05R. Pokorny—1113113J. Lovl—71180
LJul 9 · 10:05R. Pokorny—91141182J. Lovl—115117113
R. Pokorny10
WSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113LSep 4 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7312471122R. Fitl2.001011116113LSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460LSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:35O. Pros3.505890R. Pokorny1.281111113LSep 1 · 10:35R. Pokorny1.7371113792R. Neterda2.001191111113WAug 31 · 21:15R. Pokorny1.501413113J. Vidourek2.50121170LAug 31 · 20:05R. Pokorny1.736711101R. Neterda2.0011114123
J. Lovl10
LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WAug 30 · 12:35R. Neterda2.00791112132J. Lovl1.731111710153LAug 30 · 11:35J. Lovl2.636760R. Pokorny1.441111113
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