TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13044891
Played Aug 30Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
71191111712101315
Jan Lovl
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:35 and never touched — 55.3% is still 55.3%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
55.3%
55.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Jan Lovl below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 106 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Jan Lovl at 55.3%
106 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 6–18 Jan Lovl Radek Neterda has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:35What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-18 in 24
Lovl
Correct
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1580 vs Lovl 1536
Neterda
Wrong
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 100% vs Lovl 20%
Neterda
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 70% vs Lovl 40%
Neterda
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda +5 · Lovl -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lovl form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 2.00 / Lovl 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Lovl)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13044891
Neterda2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 103
Down 0–1, comes back17% 11 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Lovl1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 61 of 108
Up 2–0, closes it95% 36 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it78% 49 of 63
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda3wins
AwayLovl7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLovl leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda60%3 of 5
AwayLovl100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda5Lovl5n = 10split evenly
S2Neterda2Lovl8n = 10Lovl took 8 of 10
S3Neterda3Lovl7n = 10Lovl took 7 of 10
S4Neterda4Lovl3n = 7Neterda took 4 of 7
S5Neterda2Lovl3n = 5Lovl took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaLovlN − LBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.640.7−6.1per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaLovlBasisWin rate · lifetime189 / 370 vs 162 / 31551.1%51.4%189 / 370 vs 162 / 315Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlNeterda 2.00/Lovl 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 17:04R. Neterda—11119422J. Lovl—841111113
WAug 15 · 14:05R. Neterda—1112511113J. Lovl—81411772
LAug 12 · 14:05R. Neterda—4460J. Lovl—1111113
LAug 6 · 11:35R. Neterda—46110J. Lovl—1111133
LJul 30 · 17:08R. Neterda—39111292J. Lovl—1111410113
WJul 30 · 16:35R. Neterda—12511113J. Lovl—1011981
LJul 17 · 11:35R. Neterda—911119102J. Lovl—113311123
WJun 23 · 13:15R. Neterda—113311113J. Lovl—91111972
LJun 23 · 11:35R. Neterda—5860J. Lovl—1111113
LJun 21 · 07:35R. Neterda—117961J. Lovl—91111113
R. Neterda10
LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113LSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123LSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113
J. Lovl10
LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113LAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny1.1711115113J. Lovl4.50571161LAug 30 · 11:35J. Lovl2.636760R. Pokorny1.441111113
Upcoming Matches
R. Neterda
J. Lovl
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