TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080369
Played Sep 5Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1171167115111315
Radek Neterda
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:19 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeJan Ruzicka to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 11-10
Point 90 set 5, 11-10 — our read held Jan Ruzicka at 55.8%
90 points drawn · the score is 7 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 15–14 Radek Neterda Radek Neterda has won 14 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:19What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-14 in 29
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1643 vs Neterda 1531
Ruzicka
Wrong
both rated, 112 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 40% vs Neterda 80%
Neterda
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 40% vs Neterda 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka +2 · Neterda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Neterda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.67 / Neterda 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Ruzicka)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13080369
Ruzicka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 82 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it85% 67 of 79
Neterda2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog36% won 40 of 110
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 68
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka5wins
AwayNeterda5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka100%4 of 4
AwayNeterda83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka4Neterda6n = 10Neterda took 6 of 10
S2Ruzicka6Neterda4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S3Ruzicka6Neterda4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka4Neterda2n = 6Ruzicka took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaNeterdaR − NBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.235.5+1.7per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime213 / 410 vs 196 / 38652%50.8%213 / 410 vs 196 / 386Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.67/Neterda 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.6%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 13:45J. Ruzicka—11128113R. Neterda—7101161
LAug 30 · 11:05J. Ruzicka—99110R. Neterda—1111133
WAug 15 · 16:35J. Ruzicka—1111113R. Neterda—9820
WJul 30 · 15:35J. Ruzicka—1111113R. Neterda—9850
LJul 25 · 12:35J. Ruzicka—461161R. Neterda—11114113
LJul 15 · 12:35J. Ruzicka—1061111102R. Neterda—121188123
WJul 2 · 21:05J. Ruzicka—101111113R. Neterda—128761
LJul 2 · 20:05J. Ruzicka—131310R. Neterda—1515113
WJun 27 · 11:35J. Ruzicka—11116113R. Neterda—581151
LJun 21 · 09:15J. Ruzicka—111112892R. Neterda—1391011113
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472LSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143WSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670LSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.6191411113J. Martin2.201112541LSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162LSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113LSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101
R. Neterda10
LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113LSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123LSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113LSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111
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R. Neterda
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