TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079065
Played Sep 5Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
9111412115114––
Jirasek Martin
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 77 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 4–3 Jirasek Martin Jirasek Martin has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Ruzicka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1614 vs Martin 1467
Ruzicka
Correct
both rated, 146 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 0% vs Martin 20%
Martin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 40% vs Martin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -5 · Martin -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Ruzicka) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.61 / Martin 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Ruzicka)+3.2pp
TT Cup · #13079065
Ruzicka1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite57% won 82 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it85% 67 of 79
Martin2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 13 of 27
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeRuzicka4wins
AwayMartin3wins
Ruzicka leads 4–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka100%3 of 3
AwayMartin75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka3Martin4n = 7Martin took 4 of 7
S2Ruzicka3Martin4n = 7Martin took 4 of 7
S3Ruzicka4Martin3n = 7Ruzicka took 4 of 7
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away343%
These 7 meetings
MetricRuzickaMartinR − MBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match29.731.4−1.7per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 408 vs 25 / 4951.7%51%211 / 408 vs 25 / 49Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.136.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RuzickaRuzicka 1.61/Martin 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.9%
Ruzicka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ruzicka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LAug 16 · 17:34J. Ruzicka—5660J. Martin—1111113
WAug 16 · 14:35J. Ruzicka—12512113J. Martin—10111091
WAug 8 · 13:33J. Ruzicka—1111113J. Martin—5790
LAug 8 · 12:05J. Ruzicka—7890J. Martin—1111113
WAug 8 · 09:35J. Ruzicka—71111123J. Martin—1189101
LAug 8 · 08:05J. Ruzicka—41060J. Martin—1112113
WAug 4 · 19:05J. Ruzicka—1111113J. Martin—7590
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472LSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143WSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670LSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791LSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972LSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162LSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113LSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101
J. Martin10
WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670WSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100WSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113LSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152WSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113LSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681
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