TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13084593
Played Sep 6Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119115115––––
Jirasek Martin
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:08 and never touched — 65.3% is still 65.3%
Graded at full timeJan Lovl to win
65.3%
65.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 52 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Jan Lovl at 65.3%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jan Lovl 2–1 Jirasek Martin Jirasek Martin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:08What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Lovl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1570 vs Martin 1473
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 60% vs Martin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 50% vs Martin 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl -1 · Martin +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Lovl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.44 / Martin 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Lovl)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13084593
Lovl1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite57% won 64 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it93% 38 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it77% 52 of 68
Martin2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 16 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back18% 2 of 11
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLovl2wins
AwayMartin1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderLovl leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMartin33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl0Martin3n = 3Martin took 3 of 3
S2Lovl2Martin1n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
S3Lovl1Martin2n = 3Martin took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricLovlMartinL − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match33.736.0−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 323 vs 29 / 5951.7%49.2%167 / 323 vs 29 / 59Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.44/Martin 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.3%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl—9111193J. Martin—115661
LAug 3 · 16:05J. Lovl—11440J. Martin—1311113
WAug 1 · 13:40J. Lovl—511411113J. Martin—11711792
J. Lovl10
LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113LAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny1.1711115113J. Lovl4.50571161WAug 30 · 12:35R. Neterda2.00791112132J. Lovl1.731111710153LAug 30 · 11:35J. Lovl2.636760R. Pokorny1.441111113
J. Martin10
WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670WSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100WSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113LSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152WSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113LSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl1.9191111113J. Martin1.80115681LSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113
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