TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080354
Played Sep 5Finished
Jan Lovl
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
911115116118––
Jirasek Martin
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:18 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJirasek Martin to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Lovl above · Jirasek Martin below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-6
Point 68 set 4, 9-6 — our read held Jirasek Martin at 54.0%
68 points drawn · the score is 4 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Jan Lovl 2–1 Jirasek Martin Jirasek Martin has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:18What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Martin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lovl 1557 vs Martin 1451
Lovl
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lovl 40% vs Martin 0%
Lovl
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lovl 40% vs Martin 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lovl -1 · Martin -5
Martin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lovl) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Martin form (0%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLovl 1.91 / Martin 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lovl)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13080354
Lovl1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog38% won 24 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back22% 9 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 27
Martin1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite52% won 11 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it70% 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeLovl2wins
AwayMartin1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderLovl leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLovln = 0, below the 3 needed
AwayMartin33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lovl0Martin3n = 3Martin took 3 of 3
S2Lovl2Martin1n = 3Lovl took 2 of 3
S3Lovl1Martin2n = 3Martin took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricLovlMartinL − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match33.736.0−2.3per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLovlMartinBasisWin rate · lifetime166 / 321 vs 27 / 5651.7%48.2%166 / 321 vs 27 / 56Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.336.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LovlLovl 1.91/Martin 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lovl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lovl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 5 · 12:35J. Lovl—9111193J. Martin—115661
LAug 3 · 16:05J. Lovl—11440J. Martin—1311113
WAug 1 · 13:40J. Lovl—511411113J. Martin—11711792
J. Lovl10
LSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472WSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550LSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113WSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791LSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113LAug 30 · 13:15R. Pokorny1.1711115113J. Lovl4.50571161WAug 30 · 12:35R. Neterda2.00791112132J. Lovl1.731111710153LAug 30 · 11:35J. Lovl2.636760R. Pokorny1.441111113
J. Martin10
WSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140LSep 6 · 08:35J. Lovl1.441111113J. Martin2.639550WSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670WSep 5 · 21:04J. Martin2.001111123R. Vavricka1.7389100WSep 5 · 20:35R. Vavricka1.677680J. Martin2.101111113LSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113LSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152WSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113LSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113
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