TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071285
Played Sep 3Finished
Jan Ruzicka
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
7111113611––––
Matej Holub
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Ruzicka above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Matej Holub at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jan Ruzicka 6–4 Matej Holub Matej Holub has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:08What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ruzicka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Ruzicka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ruzicka 1657 vs Holub 1686
Holub
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ruzicka 20% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ruzicka 50% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ruzicka -3 · Holub +1
Ruzicka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRuzicka 1.80 / Holub 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holub)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13071285
Ruzicka1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 82 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it94% 45 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it86% 67 of 78
Holub1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 38 of 73
Down 0–1, comes back32% 12 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRuzicka6wins
AwayHolub4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderRuzicka leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRuzicka85.7%6 of 7
AwayHolub100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ruzicka7Holub3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S2Ruzicka7Holub3n = 10Ruzicka took 7 of 10
S3Ruzicka6Holub4n = 10Ruzicka took 6 of 10
S4Ruzicka1Holub2n = 3Holub took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRuzickaHolubR − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match34.730.8+3.9per matchSweeps52+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRuzickaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime211 / 406 vs 114 / 19852%57.6%211 / 406 vs 114 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubRuzicka 1.80/Holub 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 12:05J. Ruzicka—6990M. Holub—1111113
LAug 6 · 14:05J. Ruzicka—10890M. Holub—1211113
WAug 2 · 06:05J. Ruzicka—1111113M. Holub—7860
LAug 1 · 09:09J. Ruzicka—8151281M. Holub—111314113
WAug 1 · 08:05J. Ruzicka—1111113M. Holub—2960
WJul 26 · 06:35J. Ruzicka—1211113M. Holub—10770
WJun 27 · 13:35J. Ruzicka—1111113M. Holub—9970
LJun 27 · 12:05J. Ruzicka—1110115122M. Holub—612911143
WJun 26 · 16:05J. Ruzicka—11115113M. Holub—371171
WFeb 10 · 12:35J. Ruzicka—1111113M. Holub—7990
J. Ruzicka10
WSep 6 · 09:35J. Ruzicka1.83591211113J. Lovl1.83111110472LSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143WSep 6 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.9191111123J. Lovl1.801194101WSep 6 · 06:05J. Ruzicka1.531211113J. Martin2.3810670LSep 5 · 13:40J. Lovl1.6711711113J. Ruzicka2.10711791LSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:05J. Ruzicka1.91861111113J. Lovl1.8011116972WSep 5 · 10:05J. Ruzicka1.6191411113J. Martin2.201112541LSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162LSep 3 · 15:05T. Beran1.7381112123J. Ruzicka2.0011810101
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111WSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851LAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:05M. Holub1.8361111153R. Fitl1.831189131
Upcoming Matches
J. Ruzicka
Nothing scheduled
M. Holub
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.