TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13052747
Played Aug 31Finished
Matej Holub
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113115411811––
Pavel Chvatal
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 68.0% is still 68.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
68.0%
68.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Pavel Chvatal below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 74 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Matej Holub at 68.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 9–4 Pavel Chvatal Pavel Chvatal has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:06What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chvatal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Holub
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1644 vs Chvatal 1595
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 100% vs Chvatal 40%
Holub
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 70% vs Chvatal 50%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +5 · Chvatal +1
Holub
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 32% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 2.00 / Chvatal 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holub)-0.3pp
TT Cup · #13052747
Holub2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog52% won 37 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back31% 11 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 23
Chvatal1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 33 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub6wins
AwayChvatal4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub66.7%2 of 3
AwayChvatal42.9%3 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub3Chvatal7n = 10Chvatal took 7 of 10
S2Holub6Chvatal4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Holub6Chvatal4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S4Holub8Chvatal1n = 9Holub took 8 of 9
S5Holub2Chvatal3n = 5Chvatal took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubChvatalH − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.741.4+1.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubChvatalBasisWin rate · lifetime109 / 192 vs 140 / 25956.8%54.1%109 / 192 vs 140 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalHolub 2.00/Chvatal 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub—1111481P. Chvatal—13511113
WAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub—711811113P. Chvatal—11911272
WAug 28 · 12:05M. Holub—119312133P. Chvatal—6111110112
LAug 17 · 10:35M. Holub—11371182P. Chvatal—811119113
WJul 31 · 16:05M. Holub—91111113P. Chvatal—118991
WJul 20 · 11:05M. Holub—51116123P. Chvatal—11914101
LJul 5 · 17:50M. Holub—910111182P. Chvatal—111274113
WJul 5 · 14:35M. Holub—1111133P. Chvatal—78110
WJul 3 · 12:35M. Holub—71111113P. Chvatal—116591
LJun 25 · 13:45M. Holub—412111282P. Chvatal—1114610113
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111WSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851WAug 31 · 12:05M. Holub1.8361111153R. Fitl1.831189131
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102LAug 27 · 11:05P. Chvatal1.579811121R. Fitl2.2511115143
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