TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13035827
Played Aug 28Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1191012311115911
Radek Neterda
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:10 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 92 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 55.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 15–9 Radek Neterda Radek Neterda has won 9 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chvatal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-9 in 24
Chvatal
Wrong
gap of 6 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1580 vs Neterda 1551
Chvatal
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 60% vs Neterda 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 50% vs Neterda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal -1 · Neterda +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.73 / Neterda 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 46%
Edge (Chvatal)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13035827
Chvatal1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 43 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it68% 32 of 47
Neterda2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 34 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChvatal7wins
AwayNeterda3wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChvatal leads 7–3, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvatal77.8%7 of 9
AwayNeterdan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal9Neterda1n = 10Chvatal took 9 of 10
S2Chvatal2Neterda8n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S3Chvatal5Neterda5n = 10split evenly
S4Chvatal5Neterda3n = 8Chvatal took 5 of 8
S5Chvatal4Neterda2n = 6Chvatal took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChvatalNeterdaC − NBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match43.537.8+5.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 255 vs 187 / 36853.7%50.8%137 / 255 vs 187 / 368Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 1.73/Neterda 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.5%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Neterda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal—111031192R. Neterda—912115113
WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal—1112137113R. Neterda—414111142
LAug 12 · 15:35P. Chvatal—11711882R. Neterda—311811113
WJul 17 · 13:15P. Chvatal—119711113R. Neterda—91111622
WJul 17 · 12:35P. Chvatal—1211711113R. Neterda—101311252
WJul 15 · 10:05P. Chvatal—1191112123R. Neterda—511814102
LJun 17 · 15:05P. Chvatal—7970R. Neterda—1111113
WJun 11 · 12:05P. Chvatal—11116113R. Neterda—761181
WJun 9 · 12:35P. Chvatal—11811113R. Neterda—611671
WMay 22 · 13:05P. Chvatal—1111113R. Neterda—5680
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102LAug 27 · 11:05P. Chvatal1.579811121R. Fitl2.2511115143
R. Neterda10
LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113LSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123LAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142
Upcoming Matches
P. Chvatal
Nothing scheduled
R. Neterda
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