TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13032396
Played Aug 28Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11412141311711114
Radek Neterda
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:41 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Radek Neterda below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 98 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 54.1%
98 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 15–8 Radek Neterda Radek Neterda has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:41What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chvatal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
15-8 in 23
Chvatal
Correct
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1596 vs Neterda 1534
Chvatal
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 40% vs Neterda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 50% vs Neterda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal -1 · Neterda -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Slight lean (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.73 / Neterda 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Chvatal)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13032396
Chvatal1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 43 of 77
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it68% 32 of 47
Neterda2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 34 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back16% 10 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChvatal8wins
AwayNeterda2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChvatal leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvatal88.9%8 of 9
AwayNeterdan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal9Neterda1n = 10Chvatal took 9 of 10
S2Chvatal3Neterda7n = 10Neterda took 7 of 10
S3Chvatal6Neterda4n = 10Chvatal took 6 of 10
S4Chvatal4Neterda3n = 7Chvatal took 4 of 7
S5Chvatal4Neterda1n = 5Chvatal took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricChvatalNeterdaC − NBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match42.434.6+7.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalNeterdaBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 254 vs 186 / 36753.9%50.7%137 / 254 vs 186 / 367Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.837.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 1.73/Neterda 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.3%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal—1112137113R. Neterda—414111142
LAug 12 · 15:35P. Chvatal—11711882R. Neterda—311811113
WJul 17 · 13:15P. Chvatal—119711113R. Neterda—91111622
WJul 17 · 12:35P. Chvatal—1211711113R. Neterda—101311252
WJul 15 · 10:05P. Chvatal—1191112123R. Neterda—511814102
LJun 17 · 15:05P. Chvatal—7970R. Neterda—1111113
WJun 11 · 12:05P. Chvatal—11116113R. Neterda—761181
WJun 9 · 12:35P. Chvatal—11811113R. Neterda—611671
WMay 22 · 13:05P. Chvatal—1111113R. Neterda—5680
WMay 22 · 12:35P. Chvatal—1111113R. Neterda—6730
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102LAug 27 · 11:05P. Chvatal1.579811121R. Fitl2.2511115143
R. Neterda10
LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113LSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123WAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113
Upcoming Matches
P. Chvatal
Nothing scheduled
R. Neterda
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