TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050066
Played Aug 31Finished
Matej Holub
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
711119811112117
Pavel Chvatal
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Pavel Chvatal below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-2
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 88 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Matej Holub at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 8–3 Pavel Chvatal Pavel Chvatal has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Chvatal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Holub
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1623 vs Chvatal 1591
Holub
Correct
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 80% vs Chvatal 60%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 70% vs Chvatal 50%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +3 · Chvatal +1
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.83 / Chvatal 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holub)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13050066
Holub1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Chvatal1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub7wins
AwayChvatal3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub80%4 of 5
AwayChvatal40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub5Chvatal5n = 10split evenly
S2Holub6Chvatal4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Holub7Chvatal3n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Holub7Chvatal1n = 8Holub took 7 of 8
S5Holub2Chvatal3n = 5Chvatal took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubChvatalH − CBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.940.5+2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubChvatalBasisWin rate · lifetime107 / 189 vs 138 / 25656.6%53.9%107 / 189 vs 138 / 256Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.83/Chvatal 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 28 · 12:05M. Holub—119312133P. Chvatal—6111110112
LAug 17 · 10:35M. Holub—11371182P. Chvatal—811119113
WJul 31 · 16:05M. Holub—91111113P. Chvatal—118991
WJul 20 · 11:05M. Holub—51116123P. Chvatal—11914101
LJul 5 · 17:50M. Holub—910111182P. Chvatal—111274113
WJul 5 · 14:35M. Holub—1111133P. Chvatal—78110
WJul 3 · 12:35M. Holub—71111113P. Chvatal—116591
LJun 25 · 13:45M. Holub—412111282P. Chvatal—1114610113
WJun 25 · 10:35M. Holub—111649113P. Chvatal—814111182
WMay 22 · 10:05M. Holub—1111113P. Chvatal—6670
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111WSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851LAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102LAug 27 · 11:05P. Chvatal1.579811121R. Fitl2.2511115143
Upcoming Matches
M. Holub
P. Chvatal
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.