TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050101
Played Aug 31Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1210118118––––
Krystof Lahodny
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:13 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Krystof Lahodny below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 60 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 58.6%
60 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 0–2 Krystof Lahodny Pavel Chvatal has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:13What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chvatal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1582 vs Lahodny 1433
Chvatal
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 40% vs Lahodny 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 40% vs Lahodny 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal -1 · Lahodny +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.57 / Lahodny 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Chvatal)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13050101
Chvatal1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 33 of 49
Lahodny2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog31% won 8 of 26
Down 0–1, comes back19% 3 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back11% 1 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChvatal0wins
AwayLahodny2wins
2 of 2 to a deciderLahodny leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away2
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricChvatalLahodnyC − LBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match41.045.0−4.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalLahodnyBasisWin rate · lifetime138 / 257 vs 10 / 3053.7%33.3%138 / 257 vs 10 / 30Avg sets wonper match2.11.5per matchAvg pointsper match38.935.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 1.57/Lahodny 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 27 · 13:09P. Chvatal—11881272K. Lahodny—9111110113
LAug 27 · 10:05P. Chvatal—11511182K. Lahodny—211113113
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102LAug 27 · 11:05P. Chvatal1.579811121R. Fitl2.2511115143
K. Lahodny10
LSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113WSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:35J. Martin1.7371212792K. Lahodny2.0011101011113WSep 5 · 18:35K. Lahodny2.10411118113R. Vavricka1.6711881142LAug 31 · 13:05K. Lahodny2.2531190R. Fitl1.571113113WAug 31 · 11:35K. Lahodny2.38117119133R. Fitl1.53711911112LAug 31 · 10:05M. Holub1.6151111153K. Lahodny2.201198131WAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272LAug 27 · 12:35R. Fitl1.4491111123K. Lahodny2.631186101LAug 27 · 11:35K. Lahodny2.63118861R. Vosyka1.4481111113
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