TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13049758
Played Aug 31Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5115111210611––
Pavel Chvatal
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:33 and never touched — 57.2% is still 57.2%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
57.2%
57.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Pavel Chvatal below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 71 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 57.2%
71 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 3–9 Pavel Chvatal Radek Fitl has won 3 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chvatal
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-9 in 12
Chvatal
Correct
gap of 6 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1576 vs Chvatal 1580
Chvatal
Correct
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 60% vs Chvatal 40%
Fitl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 60% vs Chvatal 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl +1 · Chvatal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chvatal) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 2.25 / Chvatal 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Chvatal)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13049758
Fitl2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 50 of 112
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back7% 2 of 31
Chvatal1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 44 of 79
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it67% 33 of 49
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFitl3wins
AwayChvatal7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderChvatal leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayChvatal75%6 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl2Chvatal8n = 10Chvatal took 8 of 10
S2Fitl8Chvatal2n = 10Fitl took 8 of 10
S3Fitl2Chvatal8n = 10Chvatal took 8 of 10
S4Fitl6Chvatal3n = 9Fitl took 6 of 9
S5Fitl1Chvatal4n = 5Chvatal took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricFitlChvatalF − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match41.443.4−2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlChvatalBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 315 vs 137 / 25551.8%53.7%163 / 315 vs 137 / 255Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.638.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalFitl 2.25/Chvatal 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 11:05R. Fitl—11115143P. Chvatal—9811121
LAug 18 · 12:05R. Fitl—81141182P. Chvatal—116119113
LAug 18 · 11:35R. Fitl—81141182P. Chvatal—116119113
WAug 5 · 10:05R. Fitl—121111113P. Chvatal—147781
LJul 31 · 17:04R. Fitl—1711711112P. Chvatal—197116133
LJul 31 · 15:35R. Fitl—1110691P. Chvatal—41211113
LJul 21 · 17:08R. Fitl—71111952P. Chvatal—111711113
LJul 21 · 15:05R. Fitl—611741P. Chvatal—11911113
LJun 26 · 13:35R. Fitl—9870P. Chvatal—1111113
WJun 26 · 10:05R. Fitl—10121211113P. Chvatal—121014972
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102LAug 27 · 11:05P. Chvatal1.579811121R. Fitl2.2511115143
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