TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13077501
Played Sep 4Finished
Jakub Joksch
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
2111191210911911
Radek Fitl
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:20 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timeJakub Joksch to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Joksch above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 2-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 95 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Joksch at 55.4%
95 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Joksch 4–0 Radek Fitl Radek Fitl has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:20What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Joksch
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Joksch
Wrong
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Joksch 1739 vs Fitl 1531
Joksch
Wrong
both rated, 208 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Joksch 80% vs Fitl 60%
Joksch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Joksch 70% vs Fitl 50%
Joksch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Joksch +2 · Fitl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Joksch) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJoksch 1.30 / Fitl 3.40
Signal prob.75% / 25%
Edge (Joksch)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13077501
Joksch1.30
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite71% won 17 of 24
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it94% 15 of 16
Fitl3.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 50 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJoksch4wins
AwayFitl0wins
1 of 4 to a deciderJoksch leads 4–0, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJoksch100%3 of 3
AwayFitln = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Joksch3Fitl1n = 4Joksch took 3 of 4
S2Joksch4Fitl0n = 4Joksch took 4 of 4
S3Joksch3Fitl1n = 4Joksch took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJokschFitlJ − FBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match39.028.5+10.5per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokschFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 101 vs 168 / 32650.5%51.5%51 / 101 vs 168 / 326Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JokschJoksch 1.30/Fitl 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
75.1%
Joksch · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch—1111113R. Fitl—9870
WAug 7 · 10:05J. Joksch—11118113R. Fitl—391161
WJul 24 · 10:05J. Joksch—1111113R. Fitl—2680
WJul 19 · 15:05J. Joksch—513119113R. Fitl—111171152
J. Joksch10
WSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172WSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970WSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113LSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442WSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870LSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WSep 1 · 17:45J. Joksch1.691112113J. Ruzicka1.9771060WSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113WSep 1 · 15:35J. Ruzicka2.5091111672J. Joksch1.50117911113
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870
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