TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073917
Played Sep 4Finished
Radek Fitl
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191171315911117
Radek Fnukal
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeRadek Fnukal to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Fitl above · Radek Fnukal below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 104 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Radek Fnukal at 57.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Radek Fitl 2–4 Radek Fnukal Radek Fitl has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Fnukal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Fnukal
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fitl 1527 vs Fnukal 1539
Fnukal
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fitl 60% vs Fnukal 40%
Fitl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fitl 40% vs Fnukal 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fitl -1 · Fnukal -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Fnukal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fnukal form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFitl 2.10 / Fnukal 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Fnukal)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13073917
Fitl2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 50 of 115
Down 0–1, comes back23% 15 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back6% 2 of 33
Fnukal1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 22 of 41
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it61% 11 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeFitl2wins
AwayFnukal4wins
1 of 6 to a deciderFnukal leads 4–2, and 1 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFitl25%1 of 4
AwayFnukaln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fitl4Fnukal2n = 6Fitl took 4 of 6
S2Fitl2Fnukal4n = 6Fnukal took 4 of 6
S3Fitl1Fnukal5n = 6Fnukal took 5 of 6
S4Fitl3Fnukal2n = 5Fitl took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricFitlFnukalFitl − FnukalBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set42+2of 6Avg pointsper match39.841.2−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFitlFnukalBasisWin rate · lifetime167 / 325 vs 62 / 12451.4%50%167 / 325 vs 62 / 124Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FnukalFitl 2.10/Fnukal 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Fnukal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 14 · 13:04R. Fitl—135991R. Fnukal—111111113
WAug 14 · 10:35R. Fitl—11167113R. Fnukal—6141181
LJul 26 · 17:15R. Fitl—1110711112R. Fnukal—512118133
LJul 26 · 14:35R. Fitl—71090R. Fnukal—1112113
WJul 26 · 10:05R. Fitl—81111113R. Fnukal—116861
LJul 19 · 16:35R. Fitl—1194171R. Fnukal—91111193
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113LSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870
R. Fnukal10
LSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113WSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WAug 23 · 17:14D. Hons2.25119981R. Fnukal1.5781111113LAug 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal2.6351111113R. Fnukal1.44115591LAug 23 · 15:34D. Hons2.25131185113R. Fnukal1.57119111182LAug 23 · 14:35R. Fnukal1.411191113112J. Lovl2.60811415133WAug 14 · 13:04R. Fitl1.91135991R. Fnukal1.80111111113LAug 14 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.6111111010113R. Fnukal2.2074121262LAug 14 · 11:35J. Lovl2.6311216113R. Fnukal1.447111481
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