TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12480917
Played Aug 23Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
511115115119––
Radek Fnukal
Away
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeRadek Fnukal to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Radek Fnukal below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 68 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Radek Fnukal at 64.5%
68 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 3–2 Radek Fnukal Radek Fnukal has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:37What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Fnukal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-2 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1613 vs Fnukal 1542
Chvatal
Correct
both rated, 71 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 40% vs Fnukal 20%
Chvatal
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 40% vs Fnukal 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal +2 · Fnukal -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Fnukal) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fnukal form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 2.63 / Fnukal 1.44
Signal prob.37% / 64%
Edge (Fnukal)-1.0pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #12480917
Chvatal2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 36 of 70
Down 0–1, comes back33% 14 of 42
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Fnukal1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite57% won 21 of 37
Up 2–0, closes it100% 10 of 10
Up 1–0, closes it69% 11 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeChvatal3wins
AwayFnukal2wins
1 of 5 to a deciderChvatal leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvataln = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayFnukal66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal2Fnukal3n = 5Fnukal took 3 of 5
S2Chvatal3Fnukal2n = 5Chvatal took 3 of 5
S3Chvatal3Fnukal2n = 5Chvatal took 3 of 5
S4Chvatal3Fnukal0n = 3Chvatal took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away120%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricChvatalFnukalC − FBasisWins32+1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.835.6+0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalFnukalBasisWin rate · lifetime132 / 243 vs 61 / 12254.3%50%132 / 243 vs 61 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FnukalChvatal 2.63/Fnukal 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.5%
Fnukal · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chvatal won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 23 · 16:05P. Chvatal—51111113R. Fnukal—115591
WJul 5 · 16:05P. Chvatal—11118143R. Fnukal—8911121
LApr 10 · 13:20P. Chvatal—41060R. Fnukal—1112113
LApr 10 · 12:05P. Chvatal—86111172R. Fnukal—111168113
WFeb 5 · 11:05P. Chvatal—1211113R. Fnukal—10980
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102
R. Fnukal10
LSep 4 · 13:20R. Pokorny2.101071111113R. Fnukal1.6712116982LSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172LSep 4 · 11:35R. Fnukal1.6781111852R. Pokorny2.10119811113WSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WAug 23 · 17:14D. Hons2.25119981R. Fnukal1.5781111113LAug 23 · 15:34D. Hons2.25131185113R. Fnukal1.57119111182LAug 23 · 14:35R. Fnukal1.411191113112J. Lovl2.60811415133WAug 14 · 13:04R. Fitl1.91135991R. Fnukal1.80111111113LAug 14 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.6111111010113R. Fnukal2.2074121262LAug 14 · 11:35J. Lovl2.6311216113R. Fnukal1.447111481
Upcoming Matches
P. Chvatal
Nothing scheduled
R. Fnukal1 of 1 neutral
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