TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13032395
Played Aug 28Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
61111911310121113
Matej Holub
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Matej Holub below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 97 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Matej Holub at 54.0%
97 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 3–8 Matej Holub Pavel Chvatal has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:40What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-8 in 11
Holub
Correct
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1596 vs Holub 1590
Chvatal
Wrong
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 60% vs Holub 40%
Chvatal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 50% vs Holub 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal +2 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.91 / Holub 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holub)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13032395
Chvatal1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 39 of 76
Down 0–1, comes back33% 16 of 48
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 26
Holub1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite62% won 34 of 55
Up 2–0, closes it95% 18 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it75% 24 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChvatal3wins
AwayHolub7wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvatal40%2 of 5
AwayHolub80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S2Chvatal4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Chvatal3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Chvatal1Holub7n = 8Holub took 7 of 8
S5Chvatal3Holub2n = 5Chvatal took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricChvatalHolubC − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.542.9−2.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime137 / 254 vs 105 / 18753.9%56.2%137 / 254 vs 105 / 187Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.838.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubChvatal 1.91/Holub 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal—6111110112M. Holub—119312133
WAug 17 · 10:35P. Chvatal—811119113M. Holub—11371182
LJul 31 · 16:05P. Chvatal—118991M. Holub—91111113
LJul 20 · 11:05P. Chvatal—11914101M. Holub—51116123
WJul 5 · 17:50P. Chvatal—111274113M. Holub—910111182
LJul 5 · 14:35P. Chvatal—78110M. Holub—1111133
LJul 3 · 12:35P. Chvatal—116591M. Holub—71111113
WJun 25 · 13:45P. Chvatal—1114610113M. Holub—412111282
LJun 25 · 10:35P. Chvatal—814111182M. Holub—111649113
LMay 22 · 10:05P. Chvatal—6670M. Holub—1111113
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102LAug 27 · 11:05P. Chvatal1.579811121R. Fitl2.2511115143
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111LAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272
Upcoming Matches
P. Chvatal
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M. Holub
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