TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13023878
Played Aug 27Finished
Pavel Chvatal
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
9118111151214––
Radek Fitl
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:54 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timePavel Chvatal to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPavel Chvatal above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 81 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Pavel Chvatal at 61.3%
81 points played in total.
H2H Pavel Chvatal 9–2 Radek Fitl Radek Fitl has won 2 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Chvatal
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-2 in 11
Chvatal
Wrong
gap of 7 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chvatal 1606 vs Fitl 1522
Chvatal
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvatal 40% vs Fitl 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvatal 60% vs Fitl 40%
Chvatal
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvatal -1 · Fitl -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Chvatal)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvatal form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvatal 1.57 / Fitl 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Chvatal)+2.4pp
TT Cup · #13023878
Chvatal1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 43 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it71% 32 of 45
Fitl2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 48 of 109
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChvatal8wins
AwayFitl2wins
6 of 10 to a deciderChvatal leads 8–2, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChvatal75%6 of 8
AwayFitln = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chvatal8Fitl2n = 10Chvatal took 8 of 10
S2Chvatal3Fitl7n = 10Fitl took 7 of 10
S3Chvatal8Fitl2n = 10Chvatal took 8 of 10
S4Chvatal3Fitl6n = 9Fitl took 6 of 9
S5Chvatal5Fitl1n = 6Chvatal took 5 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChvatalFitlC − FBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match44.442.2+2.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvatalFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime134 / 248 vs 158 / 30854%51.3%134 / 248 vs 158 / 308Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvatalChvatal 1.57/Fitl 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.3%
Chvatal · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Fitl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 18 · 12:05P. Chvatal—116119113R. Fitl—81141182
WAug 18 · 11:35P. Chvatal—116119113R. Fitl—81141182
LAug 5 · 10:05P. Chvatal—147781R. Fitl—121111113
WJul 31 · 17:04P. Chvatal—197116133R. Fitl—1711711112
WJul 31 · 15:35P. Chvatal—41211113R. Fitl—1110691
WJul 21 · 17:08P. Chvatal—111711113R. Fitl—71111952
WJul 21 · 15:05P. Chvatal—11911113R. Fitl—611741
WJun 26 · 13:35P. Chvatal—1111113R. Fitl—9870
LJun 26 · 10:05P. Chvatal—121014972R. Fitl—10121211113
WJun 18 · 13:40P. Chvatal—911118113R. Fitl—11991192
P. Chvatal10
WAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113WAug 31 · 12:35P. Chvatal1.571211113K. Lahodny2.2510880LAug 31 · 11:05M. Holub1.83711811113P. Chvatal1.8311911272WAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113LAug 28 · 13:40P. Chvatal1.73111031192R. Neterda2.00912115113LAug 28 · 12:05P. Chvatal1.916111110112M. Holub1.80119312133WAug 28 · 11:05P. Chvatal2.00118119143R. Vosyka1.73511711122WAug 28 · 10:05P. Chvatal1.731112137113R. Neterda2.00414111142LAug 27 · 13:09K. Lahodny2.109111110113P. Chvatal1.6711881272WAug 27 · 12:05P. Chvatal2.00991111123R. Vosyka1.73111159102
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113LAug 31 · 10:35R. Fitl2.25551261P. Chvatal1.57111110113
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R. Fitl
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