TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079042
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Mastera
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
119811511114114
Jakub Joksch
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Mastera to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Mastera above · Jakub Joksch below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 85 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Martin Mastera at 54.0%
85 points played in total.
H2H Martin Mastera 7–8 Jakub Joksch Martin Mastera has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:59What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Mastera
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mastera 1775 vs Joksch 1747
Mastera
Correct
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mastera 80% vs Joksch 60%
Mastera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mastera 50% vs Joksch 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mastera +1 · Joksch -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mastera)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mastera form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMastera 1.73 / Joksch 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mastera)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13079042
Mastera1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 48 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it79% 37 of 47
Joksch2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 24 of 53
Down 0–1, comes back15% 4 of 26
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 16
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMastera5wins
AwayJoksch5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMastera100%4 of 4
AwayJoksch83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mastera4Joksch6n = 10Joksch took 6 of 10
S2Mastera4Joksch6n = 10Joksch took 6 of 10
S3Mastera5Joksch5n = 10split evenly
S4Mastera5Joksch1n = 6Mastera took 5 of 6
S5Mastera2Joksch2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMasteraJokschM − JBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.337.1−1.8per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMasteraJokschBasisWin rate · lifetime168 / 336 vs 54 / 10650%50.9%168 / 336 vs 54 / 106Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MasteraMastera 1.73/Joksch 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mastera · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mastera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 09:40M. Mastera—912101172J. Joksch—1110129113
WSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera—118511113J. Joksch—91111442
LJul 29 · 11:05M. Mastera—62100J. Joksch—1111123
LJul 12 · 13:35M. Mastera—661141J. Joksch—11116113
LJul 12 · 12:05M. Mastera—76111182J. Joksch—111169113
WJul 11 · 15:35M. Mastera—1111113J. Joksch—5980
WJul 4 · 12:35M. Mastera—1112113J. Joksch—81050
WJul 1 · 16:35M. Mastera—14122113J. Joksch—12101151
WJun 28 · 09:05M. Mastera—861111113J. Joksch—11117762
LJun 28 · 08:35M. Mastera—6470J. Joksch—1111113
M. Mastera10
WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113WAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113LAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981
J. Joksch10
WSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172WSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970WSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113LSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870LSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WSep 1 · 17:45J. Joksch1.691112113J. Ruzicka1.9771060WSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113WSep 1 · 15:35J. Ruzicka2.5091111672J. Joksch1.50117911113
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