TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086401
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Bartik
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1196111113118611
Martin Mastera
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:27 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Mastera to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Martin Mastera below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 97 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Martin Mastera at 55.8%
97 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 14–18 Martin Mastera Tomas Bartik has won 14 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:27What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-18 in 32
Mastera
Correct
gap of 4 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1716 vs Mastera 1638
Bartik
Wrong
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 40% vs Mastera 60%
Mastera
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 50% vs Mastera 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik -2 · Mastera -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Bartik) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mastera form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.57 / Mastera 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Bartik)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13086401
Bartik1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 76 of 137
Up 2–0, closes it98% 40 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it77% 59 of 77
Mastera2.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 51 of 119
Down 0–1, comes back27% 22 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartik3wins
AwayMastera7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMastera leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartik33.3%2 of 6
AwayMastera75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik6Mastera4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S2Bartik3Mastera7n = 10Mastera took 7 of 10
S3Bartik5Mastera5n = 10split evenly
S4Bartik1Mastera6n = 7Mastera took 6 of 7
S5Bartik1Mastera2n = 3Mastera took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartikMasteraB − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.440.3−3.9per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikMasteraBasisWin rate · lifetime180 / 305 vs 164 / 33259%49.4%180 / 305 vs 164 / 332Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BartikBartik 1.57/Mastera 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.3%
Bartik · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mastera won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 17:39T. Bartik—8890M. Mastera—1111113
LAug 21 · 16:05T. Bartik—1158111M. Mastera—91111133
LAug 10 · 16:05T. Bartik—113881M. Mastera—91111113
WAug 4 · 15:05T. Bartik—1114113M. Mastera—41280
LAug 1 · 15:05T. Bartik—7790M. Mastera—1111113
WJul 23 · 17:10T. Bartik—12511113M. Mastera—1011591
LJul 23 · 14:05T. Bartik—911111492M. Mastera—117816113
LJul 11 · 18:35T. Bartik—1276101M. Mastera—101111123
WJul 11 · 17:40T. Bartik—711117113M. Mastera—11861182
LJul 11 · 16:05T. Bartik—11911452M. Mastera—911911113
T. Bartik10
LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel1.807101121T. Bartik1.9111127113LAug 22 · 20:05T. Bartik1.808670F. Karel1.911111113WAug 22 · 19:05T. Bartik1.61111011163J. Ruzicka2.209125151
M. Mastera10
WSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161WSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172LSep 5 · 08:05M. Kucera1.57911118113M. Mastera2.2511961132WSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113WSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442WAug 31 · 17:39J. Ruzicka1.6712119862M. Mastera2.101041111113LAug 31 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.80111311113M. Mastera1.91415781WAug 31 · 15:35M. Mastera2.2581111113M. Kucera1.57115981
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