TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12477572
Played Aug 22Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
7111012117211––
Tomas Bartik
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Tomas Bartik below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 2-11
Point 71 set 4, 2-11
71 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 9–14 Tomas Bartik Filip Karel has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.80 / Bartik 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Karel)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12477572
Karel1.80
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite56% won 36 of 64
Up 2–0, closes it81% 13 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it69% 22 of 32
Bartik1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog61% won 22 of 36
Down 0–1, comes back38% 6 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarel6wins
AwayBartik4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKarel leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarel80%4 of 5
AwayBartik60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel5Bartik5n = 10split evenly
S2Karel6Bartik4n = 10Karel took 6 of 10
S3Karel7Bartik3n = 10Karel took 7 of 10
S4Karel3Bartik2n = 5Karel took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelBartikK − BBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.932.9+3.0per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelBartikBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 175 vs 178 / 30057.7%59.3%101 / 175 vs 178 / 300Avg sets wonper match2.32.2per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelKarel 1.80/Bartik 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Bartik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 20:05F. Karel—1111113T. Bartik—8670
WAug 22 · 17:43F. Karel—411811113T. Bartik—11811942
LAug 22 · 16:05F. Karel—591191T. Bartik—11114113
LAug 18 · 21:45F. Karel—981161T. Bartik—11118113
WAug 18 · 19:05F. Karel—1111183T. Bartik—58160
LAug 9 · 13:38F. Karel—5460T. Bartik—1111113
WAug 9 · 12:05F. Karel—81213113T. Bartik—11101171
WAug 4 · 17:35F. Karel—1611113T. Bartik—14130
WAug 4 · 16:05F. Karel—1111113T. Bartik—4890
LJul 27 · 12:05F. Karel—11861172T. Bartik—811116113
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781
T. Bartik10
LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133LAug 22 · 20:05T. Bartik1.808670F. Karel1.911111113WAug 22 · 19:05T. Bartik1.61111011163J. Ruzicka2.209125151
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