TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086399
Played Sep 6Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711911114911––
Tomas Trnka
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:18 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeFilip Karel to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Filip Karel at 70.7%
73 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 5–1 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Karel
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Karel
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1810 vs Trnka 1608
Karel
Wrong
both rated, 203 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 60% vs Trnka 20%
Karel
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 50% vs Trnka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel +3 · Trnka -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Karel) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trnka form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.44 / Trnka 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Karel)+4.4pp
TT Cup · #13086399
Karel1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 43 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it71% 27 of 38
Trnka2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 22 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKarel5wins
AwayTrnka1wins
5 of 6 to a deciderKarel leads 5–1, and 5 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarel100%3 of 3
AwayTrnka33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel3Trnka3n = 6split evenly
S2Karel4Trnka2n = 6Karel took 4 of 6
S3Karel4Trnka2n = 6Karel took 4 of 6
S4Karel2Trnka3n = 5Trnka took 3 of 5
S5Karel4Trnka1n = 5Karel took 4 of 5
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home467%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricKarelTrnkaK − TBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match44.539.2+5.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime105 / 184 vs 138 / 26157.1%52.9%105 / 184 vs 138 / 261Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.436.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelKarel 1.44/Trnka 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.9%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Trnka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 22 · 19:35F. Karel—113711113T. Trnka—81111542
WAug 22 · 15:35F. Karel—414711113T. Trnka—111211762
WAug 18 · 20:35F. Karel—411119113T. Trnka—11431152
LJul 27 · 10:05F. Karel—71311672T. Trnka—1111611113
WMay 13 · 20:35F. Karel—1211113T. Trnka—10690
WMar 6 · 20:05F. Karel—119139113T. Trnka—311111142
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123LSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111
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