TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13063725
Played Sep 2Finished
Filip Karel
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
6111191171012113
Dominik Lengal
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:13 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeFilip Karel to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Karel above · Dominik Lengal below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 91 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Filip Karel at 58.9%
91 points played in total.
H2H Filip Karel 12–13 Dominik Lengal Filip Karel has won 12 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:13What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Karel
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-13 in 25
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Karel 1763 vs Lengal 1828
Lengal
Wrong
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Karel 20% vs Lengal 80%
Lengal
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Karel 50% vs Lengal 80%
Lengal
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Karel -2 · Lengal +3
Lengal
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Karel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lengal form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKarel 1.57 / Lengal 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Karel)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13063725
Karel1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 41 of 73
Up 2–0, closes it83% 15 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it70% 26 of 37
Lengal2.25
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog55% won 11 of 20
Down 0–1, comes back20% 2 of 10
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKarel7wins
AwayLengal3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderKarel leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKarel100%7 of 7
AwayLengal100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Karel7Lengal3n = 10Karel took 7 of 10
S2Karel4Lengal6n = 10Lengal took 6 of 10
S3Karel8Lengal2n = 10Karel took 8 of 10
S4Karel4Lengal2n = 6Karel took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKarelLengalK − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.431.7+4.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKarelLengalBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 181 vs 177 / 28756.4%61.7%102 / 181 vs 177 / 287Avg sets wonper match2.32.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.338.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelKarel 1.57/Lengal 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 19 · 13:33F. Karel—1112113D. Lengal—71080
WAug 19 · 12:05F. Karel—1191111113D. Lengal—81161362
WAug 9 · 10:05F. Karel—1111113D. Lengal—4380
WAug 8 · 20:05F. Karel—1111113D. Lengal—8380
LAug 8 · 16:05F. Karel—9580D. Lengal—1111113
WAug 5 · 17:50F. Karel—11111113D. Lengal—851151
WAug 5 · 14:35F. Karel—11811133D. Lengal—4115111
LAug 2 · 18:35F. Karel—6101181D. Lengal—11129113
LJul 29 · 16:05F. Karel—38111132D. Lengal—111129113
WJul 27 · 13:08F. Karel—11811113D. Lengal—511991
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113
D. Lengal10
LSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:35D. Lengal1.5013811113J. Ruzicka2.501111471WSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 29 · 13:49M. Kucera2.311181121D. Lengal1.5513119113WAug 29 · 12:05D. Lengal1.331111113M. Mastera3.256950LAug 29 · 11:05D. Lengal1.7365111172M. Kucera2.00111177113WAug 29 · 10:05D. Lengal1.40128117133J. Ruzicka2.751011511112WAug 28 · 17:35J. Ruzicka2.254650D. Lengal1.571111113WAug 28 · 16:05D. Lengal1.331111123M. Mastera3.2589100WAug 28 · 15:05D. Lengal1.731111113M. Kucera2.009950
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