TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13088563
Played Sep 6Finished
Tomas Trnka
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6119111181214––
Filip Karel
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingTomas Trnka above · Filip Karel below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 82 set 4, 12-14
82 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Trnka 2–5 Filip Karel Tomas Trnka has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Karel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karel form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTrnka 2.25 / Karel 1.57
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Karel)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13088563
Trnka2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 22 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back20% 7 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 20
Karel1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 43 of 76
Up 2–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it71% 27 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeTrnka2wins
AwayKarel5wins
5 of 7 to a deciderKarel leads 5–2, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTrnka50%2 of 4
AwayKarel100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Trnka4Karel3n = 7Trnka took 4 of 7
S2Trnka3Karel4n = 7Karel took 4 of 7
S3Trnka2Karel5n = 7Karel took 5 of 7
S4Trnka4Karel2n = 6Trnka took 4 of 6
S5Trnka1Karel4n = 5Karel took 4 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away457%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricTrnkaKarelT − KBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set43+1of 7Avg pointsper match38.943.3−4.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTrnkaKarelBasisWin rate · lifetime139 / 264 vs 105 / 18752.7%56.2%139 / 264 vs 105 / 187Avg sets wonper match2.02.3per matchAvg pointsper match36.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelTrnka 2.25/Karel 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.9%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 6 · 14:05T. Trnka—11114113F. Karel—791191
LAug 22 · 19:35T. Trnka—81111542F. Karel—113711113
LAug 22 · 15:35T. Trnka—111211762F. Karel—414711113
LAug 18 · 20:35T. Trnka—11431152F. Karel—411119113
WJul 27 · 10:05T. Trnka—1111611113F. Karel—71311672
LMay 13 · 20:35T. Trnka—10690F. Karel—1211113
LMar 6 · 20:05T. Trnka—311111142F. Karel—119139113
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 08:35J. Joksch1.611111113T. Trnka2.208970LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123LSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111
F. Karel10
LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113WAug 31 · 16:05F. Karel1.7311611113M. Kucera2.00911781LAug 31 · 15:05F. Karel1.4475111182J. Ruzicka2.63111196113
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