TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080398
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Joksch
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119117––––
Tomas Trnka
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:28 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Joksch to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJakub Joksch above · Tomas Trnka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Jakub Joksch at 57.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Joksch 3–1 Tomas Trnka Tomas Trnka has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:28What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Joksch
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Joksch
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Joksch 1719 vs Trnka 1653
Joksch
Correct
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Joksch 60% vs Trnka 40%
Joksch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Joksch 70% vs Trnka 50%
Joksch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Joksch +1 · Trnka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Joksch) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJoksch 1.61 / Trnka 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Joksch)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13080398
Joksch1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite68% won 19 of 28
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Trnka2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 22 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back22% 7 of 32
Down 0–2, comes back6% 1 of 17
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJoksch3wins
AwayTrnka1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderJoksch leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJoksch100%3 of 3
AwayTrnkan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Joksch3Trnka1n = 4Joksch took 3 of 4
S2Joksch1Trnka3n = 4Trnka took 3 of 4
S3Joksch3Trnka1n = 4Joksch took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricJokschTrnkaJ − TBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match34.033.0+1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokschTrnkaBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 104 vs 138 / 25950%53.3%52 / 104 vs 138 / 259Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JokschJoksch 1.61/Trnka 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Joksch · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Joksch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 1 · 14:35J. Joksch—11511113T. Trnka—411951
WJul 31 · 12:05J. Joksch—113115113T. Trnka—61171192
WJul 29 · 13:39J. Joksch—1111123T. Trnka—88100
LJul 29 · 12:35J. Joksch—8960T. Trnka—1111113
J. Joksch10
WSep 5 · 09:40J. Joksch1.781110129113M. Mastera1.93912101172WSep 5 · 07:05M. Kucera1.44861131J. Joksch2.6311115113LSep 5 · 06:35M. Mastera1.73118511113J. Joksch2.0091111442LSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:05J. Joksch1.301111113R. Pokorny3.408670WSep 4 · 11:05J. Joksch1.361111113R. Fitl3.009870LSep 4 · 10:05J. Joksch1.44561651R. Fnukal2.63111114113WSep 1 · 17:45J. Joksch1.691112113J. Ruzicka1.9771060WSep 1 · 16:05T. Beran1.7311391172J. Joksch2.00611117113WSep 1 · 15:35J. Ruzicka2.5091111672J. Joksch1.50117911113
T. Trnka10
LSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:35M. Mastera1.5041213113T. Trnka2.5011101161LSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113WSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113LSep 5 · 09:10M. Kucera1.401111113T. Trnka2.758770LSep 5 · 07:35T. Trnka2.205960M. Mastera1.611111113LSep 5 · 06:05M. Kucera1.4091111113T. Trnka2.75119781WSep 3 · 17:03T. Trnka2.00211114113J. Ruzicka1.7311971162WSep 3 · 16:05T. Beran2.206101111102T. Trnka1.61111299123LSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111
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