TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12475307
Played Aug 22Finished
Tomas Bartik
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611711––––
Filip Karel
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:55 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Bartik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Bartik above · Filip Karel below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Tomas Bartik at 54.0%
54 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Bartik 14–7 Filip Karel Filip Karel has won 7 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:55What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Bartik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-7 in 21
Bartik
Wrong
gap of 7 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Bartik 1724 vs Karel 1810
Karel
Correct
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Bartik 60% vs Karel 80%
Karel
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Bartik 60% vs Karel 90%
Karel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Bartik +2 · Karel +3
Karel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Karel) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Karel form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBartik 1.80 / Karel 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Karel)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #12475307
Bartik1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 74 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it97% 37 of 38
Up 1–0, closes it78% 55 of 71
Karel1.91
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog55% won 24 of 44
Down 0–1, comes back38% 8 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back13% 1 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBartik6wins
AwayKarel4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderBartik leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBartik83.3%5 of 6
AwayKarel75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Bartik6Karel4n = 10Bartik took 6 of 10
S2Bartik5Karel5n = 10split evenly
S3Bartik4Karel6n = 10Karel took 6 of 10
S4Bartik3Karel2n = 5Bartik took 3 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricBartikKarelB − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match33.833.9−0.1per matchSweeps23−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBartikKarelBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 299 vs 100 / 17459.5%57.5%178 / 299 vs 100 / 174Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match39.240.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KarelBartik 1.80/Karel 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Karel · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Karel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 16:05T. Bartik—1111493F. Karel—591171
WAug 18 · 21:45T. Bartik—11118113F. Karel—981161
LAug 18 · 19:05T. Bartik—58160F. Karel—1111183
WAug 9 · 13:38T. Bartik—1111113F. Karel—5460
LAug 9 · 12:05T. Bartik—11101171F. Karel—81213113
LAug 4 · 17:35T. Bartik—14130F. Karel—1611113
LAug 4 · 16:05T. Bartik—4890F. Karel—1111113
WJul 27 · 12:05T. Bartik—811116113F. Karel—11861172
WMay 23 · 21:40T. Bartik—1111113F. Karel—9680
WMay 23 · 18:35T. Bartik—11911113F. Karel—911981
T. Bartik10
LSep 6 · 17:50M. Mastera2.441111113T. Bartik1.457730WSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113WSep 6 · 15:35T. Trnka2.63791181T. Bartik1.4411116113LSep 6 · 14:35T. Bartik1.57116111162M. Mastera2.25911138113LSep 2 · 13:08T. Bartik1.53117111182J. Ruzicka2.38611138113LSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:35J. Ruzicka2.2046100T. Bartik1.611111123LSep 2 · 10:35T. Bartik1.809112111D. Lengal1.9111711133WAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel1.807101121T. Bartik1.9111127113WAug 22 · 19:05T. Bartik1.61111011163J. Ruzicka2.209125151
F. Karel10
WSep 6 · 17:18T. Trnka2.256911121F. Karel1.5711118143LSep 6 · 16:05F. Karel1.91911761T. Bartik1.8011611113LSep 6 · 15:05F. Karel1.734690M. Mastera2.001111113LSep 6 · 14:05F. Karel1.44791191T. Trnka2.6311114113WSep 2 · 13:39F. Karel1.6711116113D. Lengal2.10761171WSep 2 · 12:05F. Karel1.9113911113T. Bartik1.801111781WSep 2 · 11:05F. Karel1.576111110113D. Lengal2.2511971232LSep 2 · 10:05F. Karel1.537590J. Ruzicka2.381111113LAug 31 · 17:09F. Karel1.611113971M. Kucera2.2091511113LAug 22 · 21:34F. Karel1.807101121T. Bartik1.9111127113
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