TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076582
Played Sep 4Finished
Radek Neterda
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
311811119119911
Milan Flesar
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:09 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeRadek Neterda to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRadek Neterda above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 93 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Radek Neterda at 63.7%
93 points played in total.
H2H Radek Neterda 10–1 Milan Flesar Milan Flesar has won 1 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:09What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Neterda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-1 in 11
Neterda
Wrong
gap of 9 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Neterda 1512 vs Flesar 1558
Flesar
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Neterda 20% vs Flesar 80%
Flesar
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Neterda 30% vs Flesar 80%
Flesar
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Neterda -3 · Flesar +1
Neterda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Neterda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsNeterda 1.50 / Flesar 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Neterda)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13076582
Neterda1.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite67% won 54 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it92% 23 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Flesar2.50
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog45% won 41 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back30% 17 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeNeterda9wins
AwayFlesar1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderNeterda leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeNeterda80%4 of 5
AwayFlesar0%0 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Neterda5Flesar5n = 10split evenly
S2Neterda9Flesar1n = 10Neterda took 9 of 10
S3Neterda8Flesar2n = 10Neterda took 8 of 10
S4Neterda5Flesar1n = 6Neterda took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricNeterdaFlesarN − FBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.628.3+9.3per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricNeterdaFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime192 / 380 vs 203 / 38150.5%53.3%192 / 380 vs 203 / 381Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
NeterdaNeterda 1.50/Flesar 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Neterda · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Flesar won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 1 · 12:05R. Neterda—611911113M. Flesar—11511682
WJun 29 · 15:05R. Neterda—71111113M. Flesar—114891
WJun 11 · 13:15R. Neterda—1111113M. Flesar—4480
WJun 11 · 11:35R. Neterda—51111123M. Flesar—1166101
WMay 31 · 17:45R. Neterda—1111113M. Flesar—6580
WMay 31 · 16:05R. Neterda—91111113M. Flesar—117891
LApr 28 · 11:35R. Neterda—118781M. Flesar—51111113
WApr 8 · 13:35R. Neterda—1111113M. Flesar—9770
WApr 8 · 11:05R. Neterda—1111113M. Flesar—7670
WJan 14 · 14:45R. Neterda—81111113M. Flesar—118251
R. Neterda10
LSep 5 · 13:08R. Neterda1.539990J. Martin2.381111113WSep 5 · 12:05J. Ruzicka1.67111175132R. Neterda2.10761111153WSep 5 · 11:35J. Martin2.3811125542R. Neterda1.535101111113LSep 5 · 10:35R. Neterda1.915070J. Lovl1.801111113WSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562WSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 1 · 13:20R. Neterda1.731191110102O. Pros2.00711812123LSep 1 · 12:35R. Neterda1.9110111591O. Pros1.80121313113LSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113LSep 4 · 16:35J. Jr1.731111133M. Flesar2.0089110WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143WSep 3 · 11:05M. Flesar1.8391111113M. Chmelicek1.83118941
Upcoming Matches
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M. Flesar
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