TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13076888
Played Sep 4Finished
Jan Manhal Jr
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1181191311––––
Milan Flesar
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMilan Flesar to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Manhal Jr above · Milan Flesar below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Point 63 set 3, 13-11 — our read held Milan Flesar at 54.0%
63 points played in total.
H2H Jan Manhal Jr 2–2 Milan Flesar Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:28What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Jr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1437 vs Flesar 1582
Flesar
Wrong
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Flesar 80%
Flesar
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 20% vs Flesar 90%
Flesar
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -4 · Flesar +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Flesar)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Flesar form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.73 / Flesar 2.00
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Flesar)+7.7pp
TT Cup · #13076888
Jr1.73
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite47% won 8 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it63% 5 of 8
Flesar2.00
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog45% won 41 of 92
Down 0–1, comes back30% 17 of 56
Down 0–2, comes back9% 3 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJr2wins
AwayFlesar2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Flesar2n = 4split evenly
S2Jr3Flesar1n = 4Jr took 3 of 4
S3Jr1Flesar3n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
S4Jr1Flesar3n = 4Flesar took 3 of 4
S5Jr2Flesar1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away125%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJrFlesarJ − FBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match43.844.8−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrFlesarBasisWin rate · lifetime13 / 32 vs 205 / 38340.6%53.5%13 / 32 vs 205 / 383Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.337.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FlesarJr 1.73/Flesar 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Flesar · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 13 · 17:29J. Jr—11116992M. Flesar—391111113
WAug 13 · 16:35J. Jr—3111211113M. Flesar—11914892
WAug 7 · 17:09J. Jr—4111110113M. Flesar—11861282
LAug 7 · 16:05J. Jr—118871M. Flesar—51111113
J. Jr10
WSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 15:05R. Neterda2.381112113J. Jr1.5391050LSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150LAug 24 · 17:18J. Jr1.8361161182R. Fitl1.83118119113LAug 24 · 16:35J. Martin1.57111114153J. Jr2.256916131WAug 24 · 15:35J. Jr1.9111212113R. Fitl1.808111061LAug 24 · 14:05R. Vosyka1.50911511113J. Jr2.5011711682LAug 23 · 09:05J. Jr1.831191151R. Vavricka1.8313115113WAug 23 · 08:35J. Jr1.911111113R. Vavricka1.805690LAug 23 · 07:05J. Ruzicka1.831111113J. Jr1.837570
M. Flesar10
LSep 6 · 09:05J. Martin1.671111163M. Flesar2.1088140WSep 6 · 08:05J. Ruzicka1.257126121M. Flesar3.75111011143LSep 6 · 07:35J. Martin1.731111113M. Flesar2.007640LSep 6 · 06:35M. Flesar3.255980J. Lovl1.331111113LSep 4 · 17:34M. Flesar2.107650R. Neterda1.671111113WSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:05R. Neterda1.5038111192M. Flesar2.50111199113WSep 3 · 13:44O. Pros1.408711121M. Flesar2.7511119143LSep 3 · 12:05M. Flesar2.631199121O. Pros1.4461111143WSep 3 · 11:05M. Flesar1.8391111113M. Chmelicek1.83118941
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