TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13050064
Played Aug 31Finished
Matej Holub
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
6111181191513––
Radek Fitl
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatej Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMatej Holub above · Radek Fitl below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 84 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Matej Holub at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Matej Holub 7–8 Radek Fitl Matej Holub has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:03What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Fitl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Holub 1632 vs Fitl 1565
Holub
Correct
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Holub 80% vs Fitl 20%
Holub
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Holub 70% vs Fitl 50%
Holub
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Holub +4 · Fitl -2
Holub
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fitl form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHolub 1.83 / Fitl 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Holub)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13050064
Holub1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Fitl1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHolub4wins
AwayFitl6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderFitl leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHolub50%3 of 6
AwayFitl75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Holub6Fitl4n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Holub3Fitl7n = 10Fitl took 7 of 10
S3Holub7Fitl3n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Holub2Fitl5n = 7Fitl took 5 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHolubFitlH − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.238.2−3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHolubFitlBasisWin rate · lifetime108 / 190 vs 163 / 31756.8%51.4%108 / 190 vs 163 / 317Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.237.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubHolub 1.83/Fitl 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 20 · 10:35M. Holub—11211652R. Fitl—811611113
LAug 18 · 17:40M. Holub—137551R. Fitl—111111113
WAug 18 · 16:05M. Holub—11413113R. Fitl—6111181
WAug 11 · 16:05M. Holub—51111113R. Fitl—111981
LAug 6 · 17:44M. Holub—1110761R. Fitl—81211113
WAug 6 · 15:35M. Holub—1111163R. Fitl—88140
LAug 2 · 07:35M. Holub—9911101R. Fitl—11119123
LAug 1 · 07:35M. Holub—12970R. Fitl—1411113
WJul 31 · 14:05M. Holub—1111113R. Fitl—8890
LJul 28 · 17:39M. Holub—1041861R. Fitl—121116113
M. Holub10
LSep 3 · 17:35T. Beran1.5512711133M. Holub2.3010119111LSep 3 · 17:34T. Beran1.5012711133M. Holub2.5010119111WSep 3 · 16:35J. Ruzicka1.8071160M. Holub1.911113113WSep 3 · 15:35M. Holub2.20111111133T. Trnka1.611386111LSep 3 · 14:05T. Beran1.8391111113M. Holub1.83112861WSep 1 · 13:50M. Holub1.691111113R. Pokorny1.978460WSep 1 · 12:05M. Holub1.731112113R. Pokorny2.0061030WSep 1 · 11:05M. Holub2.0051112133R. Neterda1.7311810111WSep 1 · 10:05M. Holub1.2011811113O. Pros4.33811851LAug 31 · 13:35M. Holub2.001111481P. Chvatal1.7313511113
R. Fitl10
WSep 5 · 21:33K. Lahodny2.00114871R. Fitl1.7341111113LSep 5 · 20:05R. Fitl1.531611861K. Lahodny2.3818911113WSep 5 · 19:05R. Fitl1.73111215113R. Vavricka2.003101771WSep 5 · 18:05R. Fitl1.571111114113J. Martin2.2541391152LSep 4 · 17:03R. Fitl1.731191071J. Jr2.0091112113LSep 4 · 16:05R. Neterda1.801311913113R. Fitl1.91116111562LSep 4 · 15:35M. Flesar1.571111113R. Fitl2.256840WSep 4 · 14:35R. Fitl1.801114173J. Jr1.91812150WSep 4 · 13:50J. Joksch1.3021112992R. Fitl3.401191011113WSep 4 · 12:35R. Fitl2.101111139113R. Fnukal1.6797151172
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