TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12469778
Played Aug 21Finished
Jaroslav Hajek
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
10125111311911––
Jakub Horky
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:25 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Horky to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Hajek above · Jakub Horky below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 82 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jakub Horky at 54.0%
82 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Hajek 0–1 Jakub Horky Jaroslav Hajek has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:25What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Horky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-1 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Hajek 1397 vs Horky 1495
Horky
Correct
both rated, 99 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hajek 20% vs Horky 80%
Horky
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hajek 30% vs Horky 70%
Horky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hajek -4 · Horky +1
Hajek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Horky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHajek 2.00 / Horky 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Horky)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12469778
Hajek2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Horky1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 30 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeHajek0wins
AwayHorky1wins
Horky leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricHajekHorkyHajek − HorkyBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match37.045.0−8.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHajekHorkyBasisWin rate · lifetime7 / 19 vs 79 / 15336.8%51.6%7 / 19 vs 79 / 153Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorkyHajek 2.00/Horky 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Horky · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Horky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek—1051391J. Horky—121111113
J. Hajek10
WSep 3 · 13:14M. Chmelicek1.8381161182J. Hajek1.83116115113LSep 3 · 12:35M. Chmelicek1.73511714113J. Hajek2.00117111292WSep 3 · 11:35J. Hajek1.531111113O. Pros2.385540LSep 3 · 10:05M. Flesar1.91117119113J. Hajek1.8011181172WSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180WSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:35J. Hajek1.73111184112J. Kabelka2.00791111133LSep 2 · 18:05T. Krcil1.61111110113J. Hajek2.20691281WAug 21 · 21:05R. Jaros1.8318111182J. Hajek1.83111199113LAug 21 · 19:05J. Hajek1.7311512762M. Chmelicek2.009111011113
J. Horky10
LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:05J. Horky1.28711811113R. Jaros3.3511511672WAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113WAug 21 · 19:35R. Jaros2.7510960J. Horky1.401211113LAug 21 · 18:35J. Horky1.671371111132M. Chmelicek2.10151193153WAug 16 · 13:38J. Horky1.501111113M. Cyrus2.507860WAug 16 · 12:05J. Horky1.67911117113M. Chmelicek2.1011631132WAug 16 · 11:05J. Horky1.5371111113M. Cyrus2.38113951
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