TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12469777
Played Aug 21Finished
Radim Jaros
Home
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012911611––––
Jakub Horky
Away
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:26 and never touched — 73.5% is still 73.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Horky to win
73.5%
73.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadim Jaros above · Jakub Horky below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 59 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Jakub Horky at 73.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Radim Jaros 6–11 Jakub Horky Radim Jaros has won 6 of their 17 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:26What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Horky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-11 in 17
Horky
Correct
gap of 5 in 17, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jaros 1261 vs Horky 1495
Horky
Correct
both rated, 234 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jaros 60% vs Horky 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jaros 40% vs Horky 70%
Horky
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jaros +2 · Horky -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 75% — Strong (leans Horky) · live re-read · sealed at 74% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horky form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJaros 2.75 / Horky 1.40
Signal prob.25% / 75%
Edge (Horky)+9.0pp
TT Cup · #12469777
Jaros2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog32% won 20 of 62
Down 0–1, comes back21% 8 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Horky1.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite70% won 30 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJaros3wins
AwayHorky7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderHorky leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJaros100%3 of 3
AwayHorky100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jaros3Horky7n = 10Horky took 7 of 10
S2Jaros4Horky6n = 10Horky took 6 of 10
S3Jaros4Horky6n = 10Horky took 6 of 10
S4Jaros2Horky2n = 4split evenly
S5Jaros1Horky2n = 3Horky took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricJarosHorkyJ − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.536.2−6.7per matchSweeps24−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJarosHorkyBasisWin rate · lifetime89 / 224 vs 79 / 15339.7%51.6%89 / 224 vs 79 / 153Avg sets wonper match1.72.1per matchAvg pointsper match34.638.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorkyJaros 2.75/Horky 1.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.3%
Horky · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Horky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 21 · 19:35R. Jaros—10960J. Horky—1211113
WAug 16 · 10:05R. Jaros—1112123J. Horky—910100
LAug 15 · 19:05R. Jaros—3470J. Horky—1111113
LAug 14 · 21:35R. Jaros—5240J. Horky—1111113
LAug 14 · 18:05R. Jaros—811841J. Horky—11311113
LAug 2 · 10:05R. Jaros—910111252J. Horky—1112910113
LJun 5 · 20:35R. Jaros—45100J. Horky—1111123
WMay 30 · 17:35R. Jaros—1111123J. Horky—46100
LMay 30 · 14:05R. Jaros—311111122J. Horky—118136113
WMay 9 · 16:35R. Jaros—113113133J. Horky—311511112
R. Jaros10
WSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:35T. Motacek1.2811118123R. Jaros3.506811101LSep 6 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6311811121P. Pesout1.4481113143LSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131WSep 5 · 16:35R. Hruby1.9111114572R. Jaros1.80761111113LSep 5 · 15:35R. Jaros3.25119801T. Motacek1.3351111113LSep 5 · 14:05M. Chmelicek1.171111113R. Jaros4.502750LSep 4 · 21:15M. Chmelicek—1111113R. Jaros—4790LSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771
J. Horky10
LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:05J. Horky1.28711811113R. Jaros3.3511511672WAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113WAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113LAug 21 · 18:35J. Horky1.671371111132M. Chmelicek2.10151193153WAug 16 · 13:38J. Horky1.501111113M. Cyrus2.507860WAug 16 · 12:05J. Horky1.67911117113M. Chmelicek2.1011631132WAug 16 · 11:05J. Horky1.5371111113M. Cyrus2.38113951
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.