TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12469118
Played Aug 21Finished
Jakub Horky
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
13157111191131315
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:54 and never touched — 56.1% is still 56.1%
Graded at full timeJakub Horky to win
56.1%
56.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJakub Horky above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 13-15
Point 108 set 5, 13-15 — our read held Jakub Horky at 56.1%
108 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Horky 10–6 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:54What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Horky
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-6 in 16
Horky
Wrong
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horky 1511 vs Chmelicek 1340
Horky
Wrong
both rated, 170 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horky 80% vs Chmelicek 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horky 80% vs Chmelicek 60%
Horky
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horky +3 · Chmelicek -1
Horky
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Horky) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorky 1.67 / Chmelicek 2.10
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Horky)+9.0pp
TT Cup · #12469118
Horky1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite70% won 30 of 43
Up 2–0, closes it90% 17 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it85% 23 of 27
Chmelicek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog36% won 49 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 71
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorky6wins
AwayChmelicek4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHorky leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorky75%3 of 4
AwayChmelicek50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horky4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Horky3Chmelicek7n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S3Horky6Chmelicek4n = 10Horky took 6 of 10
S4Horky7Chmelicek2n = 9Horky took 7 of 9
S5Horky3Chmelicek2n = 5Horky took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorkyChmelicekH − CBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.737.8+3.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorkyChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime77 / 150 vs 194 / 42051.3%46.2%77 / 150 vs 194 / 420Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorkyHorky 1.67/Chmelicek 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Horky · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chmelicek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 16 · 12:05J. Horky—911117113M. Chmelicek—11631132
WAug 14 · 20:05J. Horky—12611113M. Chmelicek—1011781
LAug 2 · 13:40J. Horky—9980M. Chmelicek—1111113
WAug 2 · 12:05J. Horky—581111113M. Chmelicek—11117632
LJul 30 · 20:05J. Horky—1110991M. Chmelicek—71211113
LJul 25 · 14:35J. Horky—89111162M. Chmelicek—111166113
LJun 27 · 21:50J. Horky—91191172M. Chmelicek—119118113
WJun 27 · 18:05J. Horky—941111113M. Chmelicek—11115522
WJun 5 · 19:05J. Horky—11117113M. Chmelicek—561181
WMay 24 · 13:05J. Horky—11413113M. Chmelicek—7111181
J. Horky10
LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:05J. Horky1.28711811113R. Jaros3.3511511672WAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113WAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113WAug 21 · 19:35R. Jaros2.7510960J. Horky1.401211113WAug 16 · 13:38J. Horky1.501111113M. Cyrus2.507860WAug 16 · 12:05J. Horky1.67911117113M. Chmelicek2.1011631132WAug 16 · 11:05J. Horky1.5371111113M. Cyrus2.38113951
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113LAug 16 · 12:05J. Horky1.67911117113M. Chmelicek2.1011631132
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