TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12440884
Played Aug 16Finished
Jakub Horky
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911116113711113
Martin Chmelicek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:13 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Horky to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJakub Horky above · Martin Chmelicek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 83 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Jakub Horky at 61.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Horky 9–6 Martin Chmelicek Martin Chmelicek has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:13What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Horky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-6 in 15
Horky
Correct
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Horky 1485 vs Chmelicek 1283
Horky
Correct
both rated, 203 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Horky 80% vs Chmelicek 20%
Horky
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Horky 80% vs Chmelicek 20%
Horky
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Horky +1 · Chmelicek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Horky) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chmelicek form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHorky 1.67 / Chmelicek 2.10
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Horky)+8.0pp
TT Cup · #12440884
Horky1.67
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 27 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it89% 16 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it85% 22 of 26
Chmelicek2.10
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog35% won 46 of 130
Down 0–1, comes back10% 7 of 69
Down 0–2, comes back2% 1 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHorky5wins
AwayChmelicek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHorky75%3 of 4
AwayChmelicek66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Horky4Chmelicek6n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Horky2Chmelicek8n = 10Chmelicek took 8 of 10
S3Horky5Chmelicek5n = 10split evenly
S4Horky7Chmelicek1n = 8Horky took 7 of 8
S5Horky2Chmelicek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHorkyChmelicekH − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.737.7+1.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHorkyChmelicekBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 148 vs 188 / 41050.7%45.9%75 / 148 vs 188 / 410Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorkyHorky 1.67/Chmelicek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Horky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Horky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 14 · 20:05J. Horky—12611113M. Chmelicek—1011781
LAug 2 · 13:40J. Horky—9980M. Chmelicek—1111113
WAug 2 · 12:05J. Horky—581111113M. Chmelicek—11117632
LJul 30 · 20:05J. Horky—1110991M. Chmelicek—71211113
LJul 25 · 14:35J. Horky—89111162M. Chmelicek—111166113
LJun 27 · 21:50J. Horky—91191172M. Chmelicek—119118113
WJun 27 · 18:05J. Horky—941111113M. Chmelicek—11115522
WJun 5 · 19:05J. Horky—11117113M. Chmelicek—561181
WMay 24 · 13:05J. Horky—11413113M. Chmelicek—7111181
LMay 24 · 12:35J. Horky—9460M. Chmelicek—1111113
J. Horky10
LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:05J. Horky1.28711811113R. Jaros3.3511511672WAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113WAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113WAug 21 · 19:35R. Jaros2.7510960J. Horky1.401211113LAug 21 · 18:35J. Horky1.671371111132M. Chmelicek2.10151193153WAug 16 · 13:38J. Horky1.501111113M. Cyrus2.507860WAug 16 · 11:05J. Horky1.5371111113M. Cyrus2.38113951
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172LAug 21 · 21:35M. Chmelicek1.738840J. Horky2.001111113WAug 21 · 18:35J. Horky1.671371111132M. Chmelicek2.10151193153
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