TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12472519
Played Aug 21Finished
Martin Chmelicek
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811811411––––
Jakub Horky
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:04 and never touched — 54.8% is still 54.8%
Graded at full timeJakub Horky to win
54.8%
54.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Chmelicek above · Jakub Horky below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 53 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Jakub Horky at 54.8%
53 points played in total.
H2H Martin Chmelicek 6–10 Jakub Horky Martin Chmelicek has won 6 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:04What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chmelicek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-10 in 16
Horky
Correct
gap of 4 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chmelicek 1395 vs Horky 1495
Horky
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chmelicek 80% vs Horky 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chmelicek 90% vs Horky 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chmelicek +3 · Horky +2
Chmelicek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Horky) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Horky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChmelicek 1.73 / Horky 2.00
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Horky)+11.0pp
TT Cup · #12472519
Chmelicek1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite51% won 54 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it88% 28 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it65% 41 of 63
Horky2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 6 of 21
Down 0–1, comes back13% 2 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChmelicek4wins
AwayHorky6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderHorky leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChmelicek50%3 of 6
AwayHorky75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chmelicek6Horky4n = 10Chmelicek took 6 of 10
S2Chmelicek7Horky3n = 10Chmelicek took 7 of 10
S3Chmelicek4Horky6n = 10Horky took 6 of 10
S4Chmelicek2Horky7n = 9Horky took 7 of 9
S5Chmelicek2Horky3n = 5Horky took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChmelicekHorkyC − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.841.7−3.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChmelicekHorkyBasisWin rate · lifetime197 / 423 vs 79 / 15346.6%51.6%197 / 423 vs 79 / 153Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HorkyChmelicek 1.73/Horky 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.3%
Horky · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Horky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 16 · 12:05M. Chmelicek—11631132J. Horky—911117113
LAug 14 · 20:05M. Chmelicek—1011781J. Horky—12611113
WAug 2 · 13:40M. Chmelicek—1111113J. Horky—9980
LAug 2 · 12:05M. Chmelicek—11117632J. Horky—581111113
WJul 30 · 20:05M. Chmelicek—71211113J. Horky—1110991
WJul 25 · 14:35M. Chmelicek—111166113J. Horky—89111162
WJun 27 · 21:50M. Chmelicek—119118113J. Horky—91191172
LJun 27 · 18:05M. Chmelicek—11115522J. Horky—941111113
LJun 5 · 19:05M. Chmelicek—561181J. Horky—11117113
LMay 24 · 13:05M. Chmelicek—7111181J. Horky—11413113
M. Chmelicek10
LSep 6 · 21:40L. Vosyka1.421111113M. Chmelicek2.555840WSep 6 · 20:05L. Vosyka1.4451141142M. Chmelicek2.63117116113WSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 6 · 13:04M. Chmelicek1.2511119622R. Jaros3.7569111143LSep 6 · 12:05M. Chmelicek1.91911941P. Pesout1.8011711113LSep 6 · 11:05M. Chmelicek1.676790T. Motacek2.101111113WSep 6 · 10:05M. Chmelicek1.201112109113R. Jaros4.33810121172WSep 5 · 17:15M. Chmelicek1.1716115113R. Jaros4.501481131LSep 5 · 16:05M. Chmelicek1.53591111102T. Motacek2.38111196123
J. Horky10
LAug 23 · 13:43J. Horky1.4011771252V. Kaisler2.754111110113WAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:05J. Horky1.731111113V. Kaisler2.009550WAug 23 · 10:05J. Horky1.28711811113R. Jaros3.3511511672WAug 21 · 20:05J. Hajek2.001051391J. Horky1.73121111113WAug 21 · 19:35R. Jaros2.7510960J. Horky1.401211113LAug 21 · 18:35J. Horky1.671371111132M. Chmelicek2.10151193153WAug 16 · 13:38J. Horky1.501111113M. Cyrus2.507860WAug 16 · 12:05J. Horky1.67911117113M. Chmelicek2.1011631132WAug 16 · 11:05J. Horky1.5371111113M. Cyrus2.38113951
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