TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058373
Played Sep 1Finished
Tomas Krcil
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
12107116111171113
Jan Kabelka
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Jan Kabelka below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-13
Point 99 set 5, 11-13 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 16–8 Jan Kabelka Jan Kabelka has won 8 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:43What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krcil
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-8 in 24
Krcil
Wrong
gap of 8 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1473 vs Kabelka 1412
Krcil
Wrong
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 40% vs Kabelka 20%
Krcil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 40% vs Kabelka 20%
Krcil
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil -2 · Kabelka -4
Kabelka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Krcil) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kabelka form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.57 / Kabelka 2.25
Signal prob.60% / 40%
Edge (Krcil)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13058373
Krcil1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite52% won 42 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it88% 21 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it68% 28 of 41
Kabelka2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog46% won 49 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back25% 15 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrcil7wins
AwayKabelka3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil85.7%6 of 7
AwayKabelka66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil7Kabelka3n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S2Krcil5Kabelka5n = 10split evenly
S3Krcil7Kabelka3n = 10Krcil took 7 of 10
S4Krcil1Kabelka5n = 6Kabelka took 5 of 6
S5Krcil4Kabelka1n = 5Krcil took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrcilKabelkaKrcil − KabelkaBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.437.7+3.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilKabelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 257 vs 124 / 25751.8%48.3%133 / 257 vs 124 / 257Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.57/Kabelka 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kabelka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 26 · 21:10T. Krcil—1111113J. Kabelka—6440
WAug 26 · 20:05T. Krcil—1111911113J. Kabelka—68111382
WJun 16 · 19:35T. Krcil—1111113J. Kabelka—6780
WJun 11 · 21:20T. Krcil—1111143J. Kabelka—39120
LJun 11 · 19:05T. Krcil—8630J. Kabelka—1111113
LJun 2 · 18:35T. Krcil—13911542J. Kabelka—1111411113
WMay 28 · 18:05T. Krcil—1510119113J. Kabelka—131201142
WMay 5 · 21:45T. Krcil—921211113J. Kabelka—111110782
WMay 5 · 19:35T. Krcil—1715116113J. Kabelka—1513131172
LMay 4 · 14:05T. Krcil—41311111J. Kabelka—11156133
T. Krcil10
WSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952WSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581WSep 2 · 18:05T. Krcil1.61111110113J. Hajek2.20691281WSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113LSep 1 · 19:05J. Vidourek1.5781111113T. Krcil2.25119991LSep 1 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.73111179113T. Krcil2.0097111192WAug 26 · 21:10T. Krcil1.631111113J. Kabelka2.156440WAug 26 · 20:05T. Krcil1.571111911113J. Kabelka2.2568111382LAug 26 · 19:05T. Krcil1.801031461K. Lahodny1.91121112113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720LSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113LAug 26 · 21:10T. Krcil1.631111113J. Kabelka2.156440LAug 26 · 20:05T. Krcil1.571111911113J. Kabelka2.2568111382
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