TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13017787
Played Aug 26Finished
Tomas Krcil
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1161189111113118
Jan Kabelka
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Krcil to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Krcil above · Jan Kabelka below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Tomas Krcil at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Krcil 14–8 Jan Kabelka Jan Kabelka has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Krcil
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-8 in 22
Krcil
Correct
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krcil 1459 vs Kabelka 1453
Krcil
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krcil 20% vs Kabelka 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krcil 30% vs Kabelka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krcil -3 · Kabelka +1
Krcil
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Krcil) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kabelka form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrcil 1.57 / Kabelka 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Krcil)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13017787
Krcil1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite51% won 40 of 78
Up 2–0, closes it86% 19 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it67% 26 of 39
Kabelka2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 49 of 104
Down 0–1, comes back25% 14 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrcil7wins
AwayKabelka3wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKrcil leads 7–3, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrcil83.3%5 of 6
AwayKabelka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krcil6Kabelka4n = 10Krcil took 6 of 10
S2Krcil4Kabelka6n = 10Kabelka took 6 of 10
S3Krcil8Kabelka2n = 10Krcil took 8 of 10
S4Krcil2Kabelka4n = 6Kabelka took 4 of 6
S5Krcil4Kabelka1n = 5Krcil took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrcilKabelkaKrcil − KabelkaBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.136.9+4.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrcilKabelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime131 / 253 vs 124 / 25351.8%49%131 / 253 vs 124 / 253Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrcilKrcil 1.57/Kabelka 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Krcil · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Krcil won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 16 · 19:35T. Krcil—1111113J. Kabelka—6780
WJun 11 · 21:20T. Krcil—1111143J. Kabelka—39120
LJun 11 · 19:05T. Krcil—8630J. Kabelka—1111113
LJun 2 · 18:35T. Krcil—13911542J. Kabelka—1111411113
WMay 28 · 18:05T. Krcil—1510119113J. Kabelka—131201142
WMay 5 · 21:45T. Krcil—921211113J. Kabelka—111110782
WMay 5 · 19:35T. Krcil—1715116113J. Kabelka—1513131172
LMay 4 · 14:05T. Krcil—41311111J. Kabelka—11156133
WApr 28 · 18:35T. Krcil—1111113J. Kabelka—4430
WApr 26 · 18:35T. Krcil—1071111113J. Kabelka—12118372
T. Krcil10
WSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952WSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720WSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581WSep 2 · 18:05T. Krcil1.61111110113J. Hajek2.20691281WSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113LSep 1 · 20:35T. Krcil1.57127611112J. Kabelka2.251011117133LSep 1 · 19:05J. Vidourek1.5781111113T. Krcil2.25119991LSep 1 · 18:35L. Vosyka1.73111179113T. Krcil2.0097111192WAug 26 · 21:10T. Krcil1.631111113J. Kabelka2.156440LAug 26 · 19:05T. Krcil1.801031461K. Lahodny1.91121112113
J. Kabelka10
WSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551WSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:05L. Vosyka1.501211113J. Kabelka2.5010720WSep 6 · 18:35M. Chmelicek1.837114111J. Kabelka1.8311511133LSep 2 · 21:20J. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7141180LSep 2 · 21:18M. Hajek2.001113113J. Kabelka1.7341180LSep 2 · 20:05T. Krcil1.611111113J. Kabelka2.202720LSep 1 · 21:18J. Kabelka2.004570T. Krcil1.731111113WSep 1 · 20:35T. Krcil1.57127611112J. Kabelka2.251011117133LAug 26 · 21:10T. Krcil1.631111113J. Kabelka2.156440
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