TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079400
Played Sep 4Finished
Miroslav Cyrus
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11131153111412118
Matyas Rojka
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMatyas Rojka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMiroslav Cyrus above · Matyas Rojka below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 14-12
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 99 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Matyas Rojka at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Miroslav Cyrus 2–4 Matyas Rojka Miroslav Cyrus has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:07What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Rojka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Rojka
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cyrus 1316 vs Rojka 1383
Rojka
Wrong
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cyrus 60% vs Rojka 40%
Cyrus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cyrus 60% vs Rojka 40%
Cyrus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cyrus +3 · Rojka +2
Cyrus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Rojka) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rojka form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCyrus 2.10 / Rojka 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Rojka)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13079400
Cyrus2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 15 of 52
Down 0–1, comes back13% 4 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Rojka1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite64% won 25 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 18 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it80% 20 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeCyrus2wins
AwayRojka4wins
3 of 6 to a deciderRojka leads 4–2, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCyrusn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRojka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cyrus2Rojka4n = 6Rojka took 4 of 6
S2Cyrus1Rojka5n = 6Rojka took 5 of 6
S3Cyrus1Rojka5n = 6Rojka took 5 of 6
S4Cyrus3Rojka1n = 4Cyrus took 3 of 4
S5Cyrus2Rojka1n = 3Cyrus took 2 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away117%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away233%
These 6 meetings
MetricCyrusRojkaC − RBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set24−2of 6Avg pointsper match34.742.8−8.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCyrusRojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime83 / 183 vs 91 / 18945.4%48.2%83 / 183 vs 91 / 189Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.537.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RojkaCyrus 2.10/Rojka 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Rojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cyrus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 4 · 18:35M. Cyrus—811811133M. Rojka—119117112
LJun 25 · 18:05M. Cyrus—11451192M. Rojka—811116113
LJun 21 · 10:35M. Cyrus—6780M. Rojka—1111113
LJun 10 · 20:35M. Cyrus—101050M. Rojka—1212113
LFeb 19 · 22:45M. Cyrus—112441M. Rojka—91111113
WFeb 19 · 20:05M. Cyrus—681211133M. Rojka—1111108112
M. Cyrus10
WSep 4 · 20:35M. Cyrus1.44111011113R. Jaros2.63412771WSep 4 · 19:05M. Chmelicek1.61921131M. Cyrus2.2011119113WSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 17:05M. Cyrus2.20156571L. Vosyka1.61131111113LSep 2 · 16:35P. Pesout1.831111113M. Cyrus1.837230LSep 2 · 15:35M. Cyrus2.251760M. Flesar1.571111113WSep 2 · 14:05L. Vosyka1.6111611682M. Cyrus2.20511711113WAug 23 · 13:14R. Jaros2.3891340M. Cyrus1.531115113LAug 23 · 12:05J. Horky1.3313711113M. Cyrus3.251111821WAug 23 · 11:35R. Jaros2.6397111142M. Cyrus1.44111194113
M. Rojka10
LSep 6 · 21:10J. Kabelka1.5011811113M. Rojka2.50311551LSep 6 · 20:35J. Kabelka2.0051111113M. Rojka1.73117681LSep 6 · 19:35M. Rojka1.916411131M. Chmelicek1.8011118153LSep 6 · 18:05L. Vosyka1.6791111113M. Rojka2.10117531WSep 4 · 20:05M. Chmelicek1.80111281072M. Rojka1.915101112113WSep 4 · 19:35R. Jaros3.255510M. Rojka1.331111113LSep 4 · 18:35M. Rojka1.50119117112M. Cyrus2.50811811133LSep 2 · 21:50T. Krcil1.73116911113M. Rojka2.0091111952LSep 2 · 20:35M. Rojka1.8391314892J. Hajek1.8311111211113LSep 2 · 19:05T. Krcil1.7311311113M. Rojka2.00511581
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M. Rojka
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